Estimating the impact of the volatility of shocks: a structural VAR approach
AbstractA large empirical literature has examined the transmission mechanism of structural shocks in great detail. The possible role played by changes in the volatility of shocks has largely been overlooked in vector autoregression based applications. This paper proposes an extended vector autoregression where the volatility of structural shocks is allowed to be time-varying and to have a direct impact on the endogenous variables included in the model. The proposed model is applied to US data to consider the potential impact of changes in the volatility of monetary policy shocks. The results suggest that while an increase in this volatility has a statistically significant impact on GDP growth and inflation, the relative contribution of these shocks to the forecast error variance of these variables is estimated to be small.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 437.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 31 Oct 2011
Date of revision:
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Vector autoregression; stochastic volatility; particle filter.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-11-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-11-07 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ECM-2011-11-07 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FOR-2011-11-07 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2011-11-07 (Macroeconomics)
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