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Linking Granger Causality and the Pearl Causal Model with Settable Systems

Author

Listed:
  • Halbert White
  • Karim Chalak

    (Boston College)

  • Xun Lu

    (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

The causal notions embodied in the concept of Granger causality have been argued to belong to a different category than those of Judea Pearl's Causal Model, and so far their relation has remained obscure. Here, we demonstrate that these concepts are in fact closely linked by showing how each relates to straightforward notions of direct causality embodied in settable systems, an extension and refinement of the Pearl Causal Model designed to accommodate optimization, equilibrium, and learning. We then provide straightforward practical methods to test for direct causality using tests for Granger causality.

Suggested Citation

  • Halbert White & Karim Chalak & Xun Lu, 2010. "Linking Granger Causality and the Pearl Causal Model with Settable Systems," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 744, Boston College Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:744
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Florens, J P & Mouchart, M, 1982. "A Note on Noncausality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 583-591, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Al-Sadoon, Majid M., 2018. "The Linear Systems Approach To Linear Rational Expectations Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 628-658, June.
    2. Al-Sadoon, Majid M., 2019. "Testing subspace Granger causality," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 42-61.
    3. Al-Sadoon, Majid M., 2014. "Geometric and long run aspects of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 558-568.
    4. White, Halbert & Xu, Haiqing & Chalak, Karim, 2014. "Causal discourse in a game of incomplete information," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 45-58.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Causal Models; Conditional Exogeneity; Conditional Independence; Granger Non-causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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