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HIV/AIDS-GDP Nexus? Evidence from panel-data for African countries

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  • Arshia Amiri

    ()
    (Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran)

  • Ulf-g Gerdtham

    ()
    (Health Economics & Management, Institute of Economic Research, Lund University)

  • Bruno Ventelou

    ()
    (Aix Marseille School of Economics (Greqam CNRS & SESSTIM Inserm IRD Université Aix-Marseille))

Abstract

To test potential bilateral causalities relation between HIV-AIDS mortality and GDP, we propose a simple Granger noncausality test for heterogeneous panel data models. 44 African countries are selected for annual pooled data from 1990 to 2009. Results are presented for the heterogeneous noncausality hypothesis (HENC), which tests, for each cross-section unit, the nullity of all the coefficients of the lagged explanatory variable. Bilateral causality relation is observed for 5 countries out of 44 (11% of the countries in our data set). We have 18 countries of unidirectional causality, which 14 are from HIV mortality rate to GDP (43% from total), and 4 are from GDP to HIV mortality rate (9% from total). These results alert for the risk of epidemic trap, initiated first by the deleterious effect of HIV-Aids on countries income.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 32 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1060-1067

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-11-00685

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Keywords: HIV-AIDS; GDP; Granger test; non-causality test; African countries;

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References

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  1. Chamberlain, Gary, 1982. "Multivariate regression models for panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 5-46, January.
  2. Henrik Hansen & John Rand, 2004. "On the Causal Links between FDI and Growth in Developing Countries," Discussion Papers 04-30, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  3. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2003. "The long-run economic costs of AIDS : theory and an application to South Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3152, The World Bank.
  4. Nancy Devlin & Paul Hansen, 2001. "Health care spending and economic output: Granger causality," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 561-564.
  5. BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & DESBORDES, Rodolphe & LATZER, Hélène, 2008. "How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?," CORE Discussion Papers 2008042, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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  9. Florens, J P & Mouchart, M, 1982. "A Note on Noncausality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 583-91, May.
  10. Chris Papageorgiou & Fidel Pérez Sebastián & Shankha Chakraborty, 2010. "Diseases, infection dynamics and development," Working Papers. Serie AD 2010-28, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  11. Knowles, Stephen & Owen, P. Dorian, 1995. "Health capital and cross-country variation in income per capita in the Mankiw-Romer-Weil model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 99-106, April.
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  13. Nicolas Couderc & Bruno Ventelou, 2005. "AIDS, Economic Growth and the Epidemic Trap in Africa," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3-4), pages 417-426.
  14. Erkan Erdil & I. Hakan Yetkiner, 2009. "The Granger-causality between health care expenditure and output: a panel data approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 511-518.
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Cited by:
  1. Kodila-Tedika, Oasis, 2012. "VIH/Aids and alcohol: re-examination of the relation from african data," MPRA Paper 39938, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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