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Modeling Returns on the Term Structure of Treasury Interest Rates

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Author Info
Christopher F. Baum () (Boston College)
Basma Bekdache () (Wayne State University)

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Abstract

To what degree are term structure models fitted to time series data likely to be stable? Where are the sources of instability? How well might highly parameterized models, such as GARCH models, be able to capture this behavior? These are questions that have occupied many researchers which we address in this paper by trying to identify common factors which underly the movements of the term structure of Treasury interest rates, and consider how well models based on those common factors perform.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 288..

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Jun 1995
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Computational Approaches to Economic Problems, H. Amman et al.,eds., Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1997.
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:288

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Related research
Keywords: term structure; GARCH; bond returns;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Engle, Robert F. & Ng, Victor K. & Rothschild, Michael, 1990. "Asset pricing with a factor-arch covariance structure : Empirical estimates for treasury bills," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 213-237. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain, 1992. "Qualitative threshold ARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 159-199. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 1994. "Cointegration and the US term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 167-181, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1995. "Predicting excess returns in financial markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 35-69, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-26, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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