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Modeling Returns on the Term Structure of Treasury Interest Rates

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  • Christopher F. Baum

    ()
    (Boston College)

  • Basma Bekdache

    ()
    (Wayne State University)

Abstract

To what degree are term structure models fitted to time series data likely to be stable? Where are the sources of instability? How well might highly parameterized models, such as GARCH models, be able to capture this behavior? These are questions that have occupied many researchers which we address in this paper by trying to identify common factors which underly the movements of the term structure of Treasury interest rates, and consider how well models based on those common factors perform.

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File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC-P/wp288.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 288..

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Jun 1995
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Computational Approaches to Economic Problems, H. Amman et al.,eds., Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1997.
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:288

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Web page: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC/
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Related research

Keywords: term structure; GARCH; bond returns;

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References

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  1. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
  2. Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain, 1991. "Qualitative threshold arch models," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9109, CEPREMAP.
  3. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 1994. "Cointegration and the US term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 167-181, January.
  4. Robert F. Engle & Victor Ng & Michael Rothschild, 1988. "Asset Pricing with a Factor Arch Covariance Structure: Empirical Estimates for Treasury Bills," NBER Technical Working Papers 0065, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1995. "Predicting excess returns in financial markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 35-69, January.
  6. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
  7. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-26, February.
  8. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
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