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Quantitative forward guidance through interest rate projections

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  • Boris Hofmann
  • Dora Xia

Abstract

We assess quantitative forward guidance through interest rate projections along four key dimensions: (i) predictability, (ii) credibility, (iii) redundancy and (iv) consistency. Based on data for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Norges Bank, the Sveriges Riksbank and the Federal Reserve, we find that the interest rate projections released by these four central banks are predictable and credible, but in limited ways. Market expectations of the future path of interest rates predict changes in the central bank projection path, but far from fully. Central bank paths' credibility is limited as markets adjust to path surprises, but far from a one-to-one basis. Both predictability and credibility decrease with the projection horizon. We further find that central bank interest rate projections are not redundant as they impact market expectations also when controlling for the effects of central bank macro projections that are released in parallel. Finally, the interest rate projections are consistent with the macro projections as they are empirically linked by a stabilising Taylor rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Boris Hofmann & Dora Xia, 2022. "Quantitative forward guidance through interest rate projections," BIS Working Papers 1009, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:1009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Julián Caballero & Blaise Gadanecz, 2023. "Did interest rate guidance in emerging markets work?," BIS Working Papers 1080, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forward guidance; interest rate projections; central bank communication.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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