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Output Gap Estimation and Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge

Author

Listed:
  • Pei Kuang

    (University of Birmingham)

  • Kaushik Mitra

    (University of Birmingham)

  • Li Tang

    (Middlesex University)

Abstract

We analyze stability of a large number of recommended output gap estimation methods and their monetary policy implications – not studied in the existing literature – in a New Keynesian model where the policymaker estimates the output gap over time. A sufficiently large response to inflation and small response to output gap estimates robustly delivers good welfare performance, irrespective of the choice of detrending methods. Across all methods, while the optimal response to inflation is similar in magnitude, that to output gap estimates varies considerably. Methods that intrinsically produce large and volatile output gap estimates are prone to self-reinforcing deflation spirals with large welfare loss; the optimal response to output gap estimates in these methods is small.

Suggested Citation

  • Pei Kuang & Kaushik Mitra & Li Tang, 2022. "Output Gap Estimation and Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge," Discussion Papers 22-09, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    • Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:22-09
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    File URL: https://repec.cal.bham.ac.uk/pdf/22-09.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Kevin J. Lansing, 2000. "Learning about a shift in trend output: implications for monetary policy and inflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Edge, Rochelle M. & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2007. "Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2421-2438, November.
    6. Andrew C. Harvey & Thomas M. Trimbur, 2003. "General Model-Based Filters for Extracting Cycles and Trends in Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 244-255, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pei Kuang & Kaushik Mitra, 2022. "Potential Output Pessimism and Austerity in the European Union," Discussion Papers 22-08, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Detrending; Monetary policy; Expectations; Learning; Inflation; Welfare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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