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Deuda Pública Cierta y Contingente: El caso de Colombia

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  • Sergio Clavijo

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    Abstract

    Este documento examina la dinámica de la deuda pública colombiana, distinguiendo entre la deuda cierta (la del SPNF) y la deuda contingente (la pensional y la correspondiente a las garantías estatales). Los ejercicios tradicionales sobre sostenibilidad de la deuda rara vez incluyen los efectos de la deuda contingente. Nuestros resultados indican que se requiere generar un ahorro primario equivalente al 3% del PIB para estabilizar la relación deuda pública (cierta)/PIB alrededor del 50%. Dado que en la actualidad se estaría generando tan solo un superávit primario del 2% del PIB, es necesario revisar los esquemas de tributación, la eficiencia de los mismos y los programas de gasto público para poder sostener un superávit primario de 3.5% del PIB, incluyendo 0.5 del PIB adicional para enfrentar la carga que representarán los pasivos contingentes.

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    Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 205.

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    Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:205

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    1. Sergio Clavijo, 2001. "Viabilidad De La Deuda Externa Colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003758, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    2. Carlos Esteban Posada P. & Luis Eduardo Arango, 2000. "Podremos Sostener La Deuda Pública?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003330, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    3. Miguel Urrutia Montoya, 2000. "Estrategia para Cerrar la Brecha Fiscal," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002606, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    4. Mauricio Cabrera G. & Jorge Iván González, 2000. "La disyuntiva no es pagar o sisar la deuda, es pagarla a sobreprecio o a un precio justo," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 2(3), pages 185-194, July-dece.
    5. Antonio Hernández Gamarra & Luis I. Lozano Espitia & Martha Misas Arango, 2000. "La disyuntiva de la deuda pública: pagar o sisar," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 2(3), pages 149-184, July-dece.
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