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Requisitos Para La Estabilidad Fiscal: Un Balance Y La Agenda

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  • SERGIO CLAVIJO VERGARA

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    Abstract

    En este documento se pasa revista a la situación fiscal y la fuente de sus desequilibrios. Se cotejan las necesidades de ahorro primario con las futuras cargas que representan las deudas contingentes provenientes de las garantías públicas y, principalmente, las obligaciones pensionales, equivalentes a gastos adicionales por cerca de 1% del producto interno bruto (PIB) en cada año. La conclusión fundamental es que el país requiere continuar avanzando en sus reformas estructurales de segunda generación, de tal manera que se consolide la meta de superávit primarios del 3% del PIB. Sin embargo, hay menos optimismo sobre sus efectos de disminución rápida del nivel de endeudamiento, debido a la carga que ejercerán estas deudas contingentes. En efecto, el alivio en el esfuerzo fiscal que provee las mejores perspectivas de crecimiento económico (4% anual) y las menores tasas de interés, tenderá a ser compensado por estas mayores cargas no incluidas en la relación deuda pública explícita / PIB.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.

    Volume (Year): (2004)
    Issue (Month): ()
    Pages:

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    Handle: RePEc:col:000107:003456

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    Keywords: DEUDA PÚBLICA; LATINOAMÉRICA;

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    1. Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2004. "What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth?," IMF Working Papers 04/15, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Financing vs. Forgiving a Debt Overhang," NBER Working Papers 2486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:
    1. Hernán Rincón & Jorge Ramos & Ignacio Lozano, . "Crisis Fiscal Actual: Diagnóstico y Recomendaciones," Borradores de Economia 298, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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