IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdm/wpaper/2022-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inequality, Income Dynamics, and Transitions of Mexican Workers

Author

Listed:
  • Puggioni Daniela
  • Calderón Mariana
  • Cebreros Alfonso
  • Fernández León
  • Inguanzo José A.
  • Jaume David

Abstract

We characterize the salient features of the distribution of earnings and earnings changes of formal workers in Mexico using social security records for the period 2005-2019. We find strong evidence of deviations from normality of these distributions. Comparing the results obtained with administrative data and household survey data suggests that this latter source of information is inadequate to fully capture the evolution of inequality and the properties of earnings changes. We also study the impact of transitions out of and back into formal employment on wages earned in the formal sector and the effect of early exposure to informality on future earnings. We document that workers who exit formal employment experience a significant wage penalty upon re-entry and that having the first job in the informal sector has a negative and significant impact on future earnings.

Suggested Citation

  • Puggioni Daniela & Calderón Mariana & Cebreros Alfonso & Fernández León & Inguanzo José A. & Jaume David, 2022. "Inequality, Income Dynamics, and Transitions of Mexican Workers," Working Papers 2022-14, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2022-14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.banxico.org.mx/publications-and-press/banco-de-mexico-working-papers/%7BA8247DAD-AE6B-D225-1914-2A8B9300516F%7D.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stéphane Bonhomme & Laura Hospido, 2017. "The Cycle of Earnings Inequality: Evidence from Spanish Social Security Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(603), pages 1244-1278, August.
    2. Hannes Schwandt & Till von Wachter, 2019. "Unlucky Cohorts: Estimating the Long-Term Effects of Entering the Labor Market in a Recession in Large Cross-Sectional Data Sets," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(S1), pages 161-198.
    3. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Jonah E. Rockoff, 2014. "Measuring the Impacts of Teachers I: Evaluating Bias in Teacher Value-Added Estimates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2593-2632, September.
    4. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2021. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal About Lifecycle Earnings Dynamics?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2303-2339, September.
    5. Andrés Blanco & Bernardo Diaz de Astarloa & Andres Drenik & Christian Moser & Danilo R. Trupkin, 2022. "The evolution of the earnings distribution in a volatile economy: Evidence from Argentina," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1361-1403, November.
    6. Fatih Guvenen & Greg Kaplan & Jae Song & Justin Weidner, 2017. "Lifetime Incomes in the United States over Six Decades," NBER Working Papers 23371, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    8. Chiquiar, Daniel & Covarrubias, Enrique & Salcedo, Alejandrina, 2016. "Labor market consequences of trade openness and competition in foreign markets," Conference papers 332760, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Niklas Engbom & Christian Moser, 2022. "Earnings Inequality and the Minimum Wage: Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(12), pages 3803-3847, December.
    10. Fatih Guvenen & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2014. "The Nature of Countercyclical Income Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(3), pages 621-660.
    11. Niklas Engbom & Gustavo Gonzaga & Christian Moser & Roberta Olivieri, 2022. "Earnings inequality and dynamics in the presence of informality: The case of Brazil," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1405-1446, November.
    12. Manuel Arellano & Richard Blundell & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2017. "Earnings and Consumption Dynamics: A Nonlinear Panel Data Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 693-734, May.
    13. Todd Kumler & Eric Verhoogen & Judith Frías, 2020. "Enlisting Employees in Improving Payroll Tax Compliance: Evidence from Mexico," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(5), pages 881-896, December.
    14. Raj Chetty & Nathaniel Hendren & Frina Lin & Jeremy Majerovitz & Benjamin Scuderi, 2016. "Childhood Environment and Gender Gaps in Adulthood," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 282-288, May.
    15. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Jonah E. Rockoff, 2014. "Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2633-2679, September.
    16. Pablo Acosta & Guillermo Cruces & Sebastian Galiani & Leonardo Gasparini, 2019. "Educational upgrading and returns to skills in Latin America: evidence from a supply–demand framework," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 28(1), pages 1-20, December.
    17. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
    18. Philip Oreopoulos & Till von Wachter & Andrew Heisz, 2012. "The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, January.
    19. Campos Vázquez, Raymundo Miguel & Rodas Milián, James Alexis, 2020. "El efecto faro del salario mínimo en la estructura salarial: evidencias para México," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 87(345), pages 51-97, enero-mar.
    20. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2020. "How much did uncertainty shocks matter in the Great Depression?," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(2), pages 283-323, May.
    21. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    22. Celik Sule & Juhn Chinhui & McCue Kristin & Thompson Jesse, 2012. "Recent Trends in Earnings Volatility: Evidence from Survey and Administrative Data," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-26, June.
    23. Bruce D. Meyer & Wallace K. C. Mok & James X. Sullivan, 2015. "Household Surveys in Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 199-226, Fall.
    24. John M. Abowd & Martha H. Stinson, 2013. "Estimating Measurement Error in Annual Job Earnings: A Comparison of Survey and Administrative Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1451-1467, December.
    25. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    26. Kaplan, David S. & Pérez Arce Novaro, Francisco, 2006. "El efecto de los salarios mínimos en los ingresos laborales de México," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(289), pages 139-173, enero-mar.
    27. Philip Armour & Richard V. Burkhauser & Jeff Larrimore, 2013. "Deconstructing Income and Income Inequality Measures: A Crosswalk from Market Income to Comprehensive Income," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 173-177, May.
    28. Blyde, Juan S. & Busso, Matías & Romero, Dario, 2020. "Labor Market Adjustment to Import Competition: Long-Run Evidence from Establishment Data," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 10097, Inter-American Development Bank.
    29. Jaume, David, 2021. "The labor market effects of an educational expansion," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    30. Iacus, Stefano M. & King, Gary & Porro, Giuseppe, 2012. "Causal Inference without Balance Checking: Coarsened Exact Matching," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 1-24, January.
    31. Stéphane Bonhomme & Laura Hospido, 2017. "The Cycle of Earnings Inequality: Evidence From Spanish Social Security Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(603), pages 1244-1278.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fatih Guvenen & Luigi Pistaferri & Giovanni L. Violante, 2022. "Global trends in income inequality and income dynamics: New insights from GRID," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1321-1360, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniela Puggioni & Mariana Calderón & Alfonso Cebreros Zurita & León Fernández Bujanda & José Antonio Inguanzo González & David Jaume, 2022. "Inequality, income dynamics, and worker transitions: The case of Mexico," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1669-1705, November.
    2. Manuel Arellano & Stéphane Bonhomme & Micole De Vera & Laura Hospido & Siqi Wei, 2022. "Income risk inequality: Evidence from Spanish administrative records," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1747-1801, November.
    3. Fatih Guvenen & Luigi Pistaferri & Giovanni L. Violante, 2022. "Global trends in income inequality and income dynamics: New insights from GRID," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1321-1360, November.
    4. Jaime Arellano-Bover, 2024. "Career Consequences of Firm Heterogeneity for Young Workers: First Job and Firm Size," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(2), pages 549-589.
    5. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    6. Gomes, Diego B.P. & Iachan, Felipe S. & Santos, Cezar, 2020. "Labor earnings dynamics in a developing economy with a large informal sector," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    7. Robert Moffitt & Sisi Zhang, 2018. "Income Volatility and the PSID: Past Research and New Results," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 277-280, May.
    8. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Cisil Sarisoy & Juan M. Londono & Bo Sun & Deepa D. Datta & Thiago Ferreira & Olesya Grishchenko & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Francesca Loria & Sai Ma & Marius Rodriguez & Ilk, 2023. "What Is Certain about Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(2), pages 624-654, June.
    9. Altig, David & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Davis, Steven J. & Meyer, Brent & Parker, Nicholas, 2022. "Surveying business uncertainty," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 282-303.
    10. Ivan Lagrosa, 2022. "Income dynamics in dual labor markets," Working Papers wp2022_2209, CEMFI.
    11. Cheng, Mengyao, 2022. "Legislative gridlock and stock return dispersion around roll-call votes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    12. Elin Halvorsen & Serdar Ozkan & Sergio Salgado, 2022. "Earnings dynamics and its intergenerational transmission: Evidence from Norway," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1707-1746, November.
    13. Jose Garcia-Louzao & Gabriel Burdin, 2023. "Employee Owned Firms and the Careers of Young Workers," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 113, Bank of Lithuania.
    14. Robert Moffitt & Sisi Zhang, 2018. "The PSID and Income Volatility: Its Record of Seminal Research and Some New Findings," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 680(1), pages 48-81, November.
    15. Salzmann, Leonard, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks in Recessions and Booms," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224588, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Chan, Yue-Cheong & Saffar, Walid & Wei, K.C. John, 2021. "How economic policy uncertainty affects the cost of raising equity capital: Evidence from seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    17. John Carter Braxton & Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Jonathan Rothbaum & Lawrence Schmidt, 2021. "Changing Income Risk across the US Skill Distribution: Evidence from a Generalized Kalman Filter," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    18. Francisco H G Ferreira & Sergio P Firpo & Julián Messina, 2022. "Labor Market Experience and Falling Earnings Inequality in Brazil: 1995–2012," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 37-67.
    19. Juan M. Londono & Mehrdad Samadi, 2023. "The Price of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Daily Options," International Finance Discussion Papers 1376, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maxime Leroux & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stéphane Surprenant, 2022. "How is machine learning useful for macroeconomic forecasting?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 920-964, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Earnings dynamics; higher-order earnings risk; inequality; worker transitions; informal labor markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J46 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Informal Labor Market

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2022-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Subgerencia de desarrollo de sistemas (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bangvmx.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.