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Spurious Cointegration: The Engle-Granger Test in the Presence of Structural Breaks

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  • Antonio E. Noriega
  • Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària

Abstract

This paper analyses the asymptotic behavior of the Engle-Granger t-test for cointegration when the data include structural breaks, instead of being pure I(1) processes. We find that the test does not possess a limiting distribution, but diverges as the sample size tends to infinity. Calculations involving the asymptotic expression of the t-test , as well as Monte Carlo simulations, reveal that the test can diverge in either direction, making it unreliable as a test for cointegration, when there are neglected breaks in the trend function of the data. Using real data on car sales and murders in the US, we present an empirical illustration of the theoretical results.

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File URL: http://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-discursos/publicaciones/documentos-de-investigacion/banxico/%7B168AEF3C-CAD7-0582-0EEC-E05959674094%7D.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de México in its series Working Papers with number 2006-12.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2006-12

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Web page: http://www.banxico.org.mx
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Keywords: Spurious cointegration; structural breaks; integrated processes;

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  1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  2. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
  3. Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia & Antonio E. Noriega, 2005. "Spurious regression under broken trend stationarity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 186, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
  5. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Perron, Pierre & Zhu, Xiaokang, 2005. "Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 65-119.
  7. Gonzalo, J. & Lee, T.H., 1995. "Pitfalls in Testing for Long Run Relationships," Papers 38, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  8. Stephen Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2003. "Spurious rejections by cointegration tests induced by structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1117-1121.
  9. Graham Elliott, 1998. "On the Robustness of Cointegration Methods when Regressors Almost Have Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 149-158, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Filiz OZKAN, & Ömer OZKAN, & Huseyin Serdar KUYUK, 2012. "Energy Production And Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence From Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(2).
  2. Víctor-Hugo Alcalá Ríos & Manuel Gómez Zaldívar & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2011. "Paradoja Feldstein-Horioka: el caso de México (1950-2007)," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 26(2), pages 293-313.
  3. Ozkan, F, 2011. "Steel Industry and The Sector’s Impact On Economical Growth In Turkey," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 11(2).

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