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Risk premium in the era of shale oil

Author

Listed:
  • Fabrizio Ferriani

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Filippo Natoli

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Giovanni Veronese

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Federica Zeni

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

The boom in the production of shale oil in the United States has triggered a structural transformation of the oil market. We show, both theoretically and empirically, that this process has significant consequences for oil risk premium. We construct a model based on shale producers interacting with financial speculators in the futures market. Compared to conventional oil, shale oil technology is more flexible, but producers have higher risk aversion and face additional costs due to their reliance on external finance. Our model helps to explain the observed pattern of aggregate hedging by US oil companies in the last decade. The empirical analysis shows that the hedging pressure of shale producers has become more important than that of conventional producers in explaining the oil futures risk premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabrizio Ferriani & Filippo Natoli & Giovanni Veronese & Federica Zeni, 2019. "Risk premium in the era of shale oil," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1215, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1215_19
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    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2019/2019-1215/en_tema_1215.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ferriani, Fabrizio & Veronese, Giovanni, 2022. "Hedging and investment trade-offs in the U.S. oil industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    2. Filippo Natoli, 2021. "Financialization Of Commodities Before And After The Great Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 488-511, April.
    3. Fedorov, Semyon & Lavrutich, Maria & Hagspiel, Verena & Lerdahl, Thomas, 2022. "Risk and benefit sharing schemes in oil exploration and production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    shale oil; futures; risk premium; hedging; speculation; limits to arbitrage.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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