Nowcasting the Global Economy
AbstractForecasts of global economic activity and inflation are important inputs when conducting monetary policy in small open economies such as Canada. As part of the Bank of Canada's broad agenda to augment its short-term forecasting tools, the author constructs simple mixed-frequency forecasting equations for quarterly global output, imports, and inflation using the monthly global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). When compared against two benchmark models, the results show that the PMIs are useful for forecasting developments in the global economy. As the forecasts are updated throughout the quarter with the monthly release of the PMI, forecasting performance generally improves. An analysis of the forecasts over the period of the Great Recession (in particular, 2008Q4 to 2009Q2) shows that, while models that include the "soft" PMI indicators did not fully capture the sharp deterioration in the global economy, they nevertheless improved the forecasts relative to the benchmark models. This finding highlights the usefulness of such indicators for short-term forecasting.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Discussion Papers with number 10-12.
Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
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Economic models; International topics;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-10-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-10-02 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2010-10-02 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2010-10-02 (Macroeconomics)
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- Claudia Godbout & Marco J. Lombardi, 2012.
"Short-Term Forecasting of the Japanese Economy Using Factor Models,"
12-7, Bank of Canada.
- Godbout, Claudia & Lombardi, Marco J., 2012. "Short-term forecasting of the Japanese economy using factor models," Working Paper Series 1428, European Central Bank.
- Stratford, Kate, 2013. "Nowcasting world GDP and trade using global indicators," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 53(3), pages 233-242.
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