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Exchange Rates and Government Debt

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  • Federico Favaretto

Abstract

This paper studies how government debt variables impact estimates of the classic and new UIP puzzles for quarterly data between 2000 and 2020 of 6 developed countries in relation to the United States. I estimate country-pair VECMs to model cointegration relations between debt variables, price differences, interest rates differences and nominal exchange rate. I compare this framework with one without debt variables following Engel (2016) using quarterly data between 1979 and 2020. In the framework without debt, I don't find the new UIP puzzle while in the framework with debt, I do find it. Government debt variables are significant and alter the sign of comovements between difference in interest rates and far-ahead ex-post and ex-ante excess currency returns. The magnitude of the effect is economically relevant. Government debts coffcients cannot be uniquely associated with convenience yield story.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Favaretto, 2023. "Exchange Rates and Government Debt," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23198, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp23198
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rates; Government Debt; UIP puzzle; Excess Currency Returns.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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