IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arz/wpaper/eres2013_185.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Marina Bravi
  • Stefano Rossi
  • Antonio Talarico

Abstract

The recovery of brownfield sites has been in the past and still is today at the center of urban policies that have started, set up and, in some cases, completed the main projects of urban transformation. In this regard it should be noted that large transformation areas often require a preliminary remediation before that the urban functions are established. The recovery of these areas has, among other things, the character of public interest in relation to the environmental protection and public health goals. Basically, the investment decision, concerning the development of brownfields is affected by two critical variables: the remediation costs and the market value of the area after completion of the environmental recovery. This last is in fact a complex process, which cannot be estimated with certainty, influenced by many variables, such as, for example, the cost of the single operations, the timing, the technology and the uncertainty of achieving the remediation goals (Weber et al., 2008). In the past and in many countries, the public resources were preferred to encourage the development of urban transformation projects of contaminated lands. On the contrary, the current economic scenario requires a new insight that includes the possibility of involving the private developers from the early stages of the transformation. In this regard, given the uncertainty surrounding the remediation costs, some authors (Espinoza & Luccioni, 2007) have aimed to the definition of the optimal size of the investments, able to make feasible the land transformation from the financial and economic point of view, through the Real Options Theory (ROT). In this light, the work attempts to argue and support the application of the ROT, considering a contaminated area where the plan allows the change from industrial to residential and commercial use, but where the remediation costs are unavoidable. The numerical example, that is solved using the Black & Scholes formula, shows that, the higher is the volatility – the uncertainty – of the transformation value of the land, more the deferral option value is increasing . After a year, the landlord will proceed with the remediation, only if the market value of the land is greater than the cost of its recovery; otherwise it will not. As a result, the payoff for the landlord is obtained from the maximization of the value added and from the sales price of the land, that, in turn, will result from the transformation value.

Suggested Citation

  • Marina Bravi & Stefano Rossi & Antonio Talarico, 2013. "Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios," ERES eres2013_185, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
  • Handle: RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2013_185
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://eres.architexturez.net/doc/oai-eres-id-eres2013-185
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://eres.architexturez.net/system/files/pdf/eres2013_185.content.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bulan, Laarni & Mayer, Christopher & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2009. "Irreversible investment, real options, and competition: Evidence from real estate development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 237-251, May.
    2. David Geltner, 1989. "On the use of the Financial Option Price Model to Value and Explain Vacant Urban Land," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 142-158, June.
    3. Capozza, Dennis R & Sick, Gordon A, 1991. "Valuing Long-Term Leases: The Option to Redevelop," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 209-223, June.
    4. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    5. Bruce R. Weber & Alastair Adair & Stanley McGreal, 2008. "Solutions to the five key brownfield valuation problems," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(1), pages 8-37, February.
    6. Titman, Sheridan, 1985. "Urban Land Prices under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 505-514, June.
    7. Guthrie, Graeme, 2009. "Real Options in Theory and Practice," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195380637.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muhammad Zaim Razak & Haniza Khalid & Azhar Mohamad, 2018. "Speculative Behavior in Vacant Land Development: Evidence for Real Options in Malaysia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 56(4), pages 245-266, December.
    2. Renigier-Biłozor Małgorzata & d’Amato Maurizio, 2017. "The Valuation of Hope Value for Real Estate Development," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 25(2), pages 91-101, June.
    3. d’Amato, Maurizio & Zrobek, Sabina & Renigier Bilozor, Malgorzata & Walacik, Marek & Mercadante, Giuseppe, 2019. "Valuing the effect of the change of zoning on underdeveloped land using fuzzy real option approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 365-374.
    4. Kyungwon Kim & Jae Wook Song, 2018. "Managing Bubbles in the Korean Real Estate Market: A Real Options Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-25, August.
    5. Andrianos Tsekrekos & George Kanoutos, 2013. "Real Options Premia Implied from Recent Transactions in the Greek Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 152-168, July.
    6. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
    7. David Kim Hin Ho & Eddie Chi-man Hui & Muhammad Faishal Bin Ibrahim, 2009. "Asset Value Enhancement of Singapore’s Public Housing Main Upgrading Programme (MUP) Policy: A Real Option Analysis Approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 46(11), pages 2329-2361, October.
    8. Brent Ambrose, 2005. "Forced Development and Urban Land Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 245-265, April.
    9. Robert Grovenstein & James Kau & Henry Munneke, 2011. "Development Value: A Real Options Approach Using Empirical Data," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 321-335, October.
    10. L. Li & Helen X. H. Bao & K. W. Chau, 2023. "On the Strategic Timing of Sales by Real Estate Developers: To Wait or To Presell?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 169-196, January.
    11. Miao, Jianjun & Wang, Neng, 2007. "Investment, consumption, and hedging under incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 608-642, December.
    12. Matthew Spiegel, 1999. "Housing Return And Construction Cycles," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm114, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Mar 2001.
    13. Bolton, Patrick & Wang, Neng & Yang, Jinqiang, 2019. "Investment under uncertainty with financial constraints," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    14. John Clapp & Piet Eichholtz & Thies Lindenthal, 2012. "Real Option Value over a Housing Market Cycle: West Berlin," ERSA conference papers ersa12p264, European Regional Science Association.
    15. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    16. Barbara Glensk & Christiane Rosen & Reinhard Madlener, 2016. "A Real Options Model for the Disinvestment in Conventional Power Plants," Operations Research Proceedings, in: Marco Lübbecke & Arie Koster & Peter Letmathe & Reinhard Madlener & Britta Peis & Grit Walther (ed.), Operations Research Proceedings 2014, edition 1, pages 173-179, Springer.
    17. Felipe Morandé & Alexandra Petermann & Miguel Vargas, 2010. "Determinants of Urban Vacant Land," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 188-202, February.
    18. Couto, Gualter & Martins, Dulce & Pimentel, Pedro & Castanho, Rui Alexandre, 2021. "Investments on urban land valuation by real options – The Portuguese case," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    19. Said Boukendour & Rahim Bah, 2001. "The guaranteed maximum price contract as call option," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 563-567.
    20. Piotr W. Saługa & Paweł Grzesiak & Jacek Kamiński, 2020. "Valuation of Decision Flexibility and Strategic Value in Coal Gasification Projects with the Option-To-Switch between Different Outputs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-20, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2013_185. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Architexturez Imprints (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eressea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.