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The sharp peak-flat trough pattern and critical speculation

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  • B. M. Roehner
  • D. Sornette

Abstract

We find empirically a characteristic sharp peak-flat trough pattern in a large set of commodity prices. We argue that the sharp peak structure reflects an endogenous inter-market organization, and that peaks may be seen as local ``singularities'' resulting from imitation and herding. These findings impose a novel stringent constraint on the construction of models. Intermittent amplification is not sufficient and nonlinear effects seem necessary to account for the observations.

Suggested Citation

  • B. M. Roehner & D. Sornette, 1998. "The sharp peak-flat trough pattern and critical speculation," Papers cond-mat/9802234, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/9802234
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    Cited by:

    1. A. Corcos & J-P Eckmann & A. Malaspinas & Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2002. "Imitation and contrarian behaviour: hyperbolic bubbles, crashes and chaos," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 264-281.
    2. Roehner, Bertrand M., 2001. "Two classes of speculative peaks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 71-83.
    3. Kapopoulos, Panayotis & Siokis, Fotios, 2005. "Stock market crashes and dynamics of aftershocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 48-54, October.
    4. B. M. Roehner, 2000. "Determining bottom price-levels after a speculative peak," Papers cond-mat/0009222, arXiv.org.
    5. B. M. Roehner & D. Sornette, 2000. ""Thermometers" of Speculative Frenzy," Papers cond-mat/0001353, arXiv.org.
    6. Focardi, Sergio & Cincotti, Silvano & Marchesi, Michele, 2002. "Self-organization and market crashes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 241-267, October.
    7. Cheng, Fangzheng & Fan, Tijun & Fan, Dandan & Li, Shanling, 2018. "The prediction of oil price turning points with log-periodic power law and multi-population genetic algorithm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 341-355.

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