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The durations of recession and prosperity: does their distribution follow a power or an exponential law?

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  • Marcel Ausloos
  • Janusz Miskiewicz
  • Michele Sanglier

Abstract

Following findings by Ormerod and Mounfield, Wright rises the problem whether a power or an exponential law describes the distribution of occurrences of economic recession periods. In order to clarify the controversy a different set of GDP data is hereby examined. The conclusion about a power law distribution of recession periods seems better though the matter is not entirely settled. The case of prosperity duration is also studied and is found to follow a power law. Universal but also non universal features between recession and prosperity cases are emphasized. Considering that the economy is basically a bistable (recession/prosperity) system we may derive a characteristic (de)stabilisation time.

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File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0403143
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number cond-mat/0403143.

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Date of creation: Mar 2004
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Publication status: Published in Physica A 339 (2004) 548-558
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0403143

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Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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Cited by:
  1. Wright, Ian, 2008. "Implicit Microfoundations for Macroeconomics," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-41, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Redelico, Francisco O. & Proto, Araceli N. & Ausloos, Marcel, 2009. "Hierarchical structures in the Gross Domestic Product per capita fluctuation in Latin American countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(17), pages 3527-3535.
  3. Marcel R. Ausloos, 2012. "Econophysics of a religious cult: the Antoinists in Belgium [1920-2000]," Papers 1201.4841, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2012.
  4. Anca Gheorghiu & Ion Spanulescu, 2012. "An Econophysics Model for the Migration Phenomena," Papers 1202.0996, arXiv.org.
  5. Redelico, Francisco O. & Proto, Araceli N. & Ausloos, Marcel, 2008. "Power law for the duration of recession and prosperity in Latin American countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(25), pages 6330-6336.
  6. Bai, Man-Ying & Zhu, Hai-Bo, 2010. "Power law and multiscaling properties of the Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(9), pages 1883-1890.
  7. Tomson Ogwang, 2011. "Power laws in top wealth distributions: evidence from Canada," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 473-486, October.
  8. Paul Ormerod & Amy Heineike, 2009. "Global recessions as a cascade phenomenon with interacting agents," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 15-26, June.

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