The durations of recession and prosperity: does their distribution follow a power or an exponential law?
AbstractFollowing findings by Ormerod and Mounfield, Wright rises the problem whether a power or an exponential law describes the distribution of occurrences of economic recession periods. In order to clarify the controversy a different set of GDP data is hereby examined. The conclusion about a power law distribution of recession periods seems better though the matter is not entirely settled. The case of prosperity duration is also studied and is found to follow a power law. Universal but also non universal features between recession and prosperity cases are emphasized. Considering that the economy is basically a bistable (recession/prosperity) system we may derive a characteristic (de)stabilisation time.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number cond-mat/0403143.
Date of creation: Mar 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Physica A 339 (2004) 548-558
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://arxiv.org/
Other versions of this item:
- Ausloos, Marcel & Miśkiewicz, Janusz & Sanglier, Michèle, 2004. "The durations of recession and prosperity: does their distribution follow a power or an exponential law?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 339(3), pages 548-558.
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Wright, Ian, 2008.
"Implicit Microfoundations for Macroeconomics,"
Economics Discussion Papers
2008-41, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Wright, Ian, 2009. "Implicit Microfoundations for Macroeconomics," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(19), pages 1-27.
- Redelico, Francisco O. & Proto, Araceli N. & Ausloos, Marcel, 2009. "Hierarchical structures in the Gross Domestic Product per capita fluctuation in Latin American countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(17), pages 3527-3535.
- Marcel R. Ausloos, 2012.
"Econophysics of a religious cult: the Antoinists in Belgium [1920-2000],"
1201.4841, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2012.
- Ausloos, Marcel, 2012. "Econophysics of a religious cult: The Antoinists in Belgium [1920–2000]," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(11), pages 3190-3197.
- Anca Gheorghiu & Ion Spanulescu, 2012. "An Econophysics Model for the Migration Phenomena," Papers 1202.0996, arXiv.org.
- Redelico, Francisco O. & Proto, Araceli N. & Ausloos, Marcel, 2008. "Power law for the duration of recession and prosperity in Latin American countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(25), pages 6330-6336.
- Bai, Man-Ying & Zhu, Hai-Bo, 2010. "Power law and multiscaling properties of the Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(9), pages 1883-1890.
- Tomson Ogwang, 2011. "Power laws in top wealth distributions: evidence from Canada," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 473-486, October.
- Paul Ormerod & Amy Heineike, 2009. "Global recessions as a cascade phenomenon with interacting agents," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 15-26, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.