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Simple Model Of Asymmetrical Business Cycles: Interactive Dynamics Of A Large Number Of Agents With Discrete Choices

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  • Aoki, Masanao
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    Abstract

    A (jump) Markov process (generalized birth-and-death process) is used to modelinteractions of a large number of agents subject to field-type externalities. Transition rates are (nonlinear) functions of the composition of the population of agents classified by the choices they make. The model state randomly moves from one equilibrium to another, and exhibits asymmetrical oscillations (business cycles). It is shown that the processes can have several locally stable equilibria, depending on the degree of uncertainty associated with consequences of alternative choices.There is a positive probability of transition between any pair of such basins of attraction, and mean first-passage times between equilibria can be different when different pairs of basins are calculated.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.

    Volume (Year): 2 (1998)
    Issue (Month): 04 (December)
    Pages: 427-442

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    Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:04:p:427-442_00

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    Cited by:
    1. Masanao Aoki & Hiroshi Yoshikawa, 2003. "Uncertainty, Policy Ineffectiveness, and Long Stagnation of the Macroeconomy," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-197, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    2. Corrado Di Guilmi & Mauro Gallegati & Edoardo Gaffeo, 2003. "Power Law Scaling in the World Income Distribution," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(6), pages 1-7.
    3. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2003:i:6:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Michael Fratantoni & Scott Schuh, 2000. "Monetary policy, housing investment, and heterogeneous regional markets," Working Papers 00-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    5. Muliere, Pietro & Suverato, Davide, 2014. "Income and Wealth Distributions in a Population of Heterogeneous Agents," Discussion Papers in Economics 20928, University of Munich, Department of Economics.

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