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Learning to Learn Financial Networks for Optimising Momentum Strategies

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  • Xingyue Pu
  • Stefan Zohren
  • Stephen Roberts
  • Xiaowen Dong

Abstract

Network momentum provides a novel type of risk premium, which exploits the interconnections among assets in a financial network to predict future returns. However, the current process of constructing financial networks relies heavily on expensive databases and financial expertise, limiting accessibility for small-sized and academic institutions. Furthermore, the traditional approach treats network construction and portfolio optimisation as separate tasks, potentially hindering optimal portfolio performance. To address these challenges, we propose L2GMOM, an end-to-end machine learning framework that simultaneously learns financial networks and optimises trading signals for network momentum strategies. The model of L2GMOM is a neural network with a highly interpretable forward propagation architecture, which is derived from algorithm unrolling. The L2GMOM is flexible and can be trained with diverse loss functions for portfolio performance, e.g. the negative Sharpe ratio. Backtesting on 64 continuous future contracts demonstrates a significant improvement in portfolio profitability and risk control, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.74 across a 20-year period.

Suggested Citation

  • Xingyue Pu & Stefan Zohren & Stephen Roberts & Xiaowen Dong, 2023. "Learning to Learn Financial Networks for Optimising Momentum Strategies," Papers 2308.12212, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2308.12212
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lior Menzly & Oguzhan Ozbas, 2010. "Market Segmentation and Cross‐predictability of Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1555-1580, August.
    2. Tom Liu & Stephen Roberts & Stefan Zohren, 2023. "Deep Inception Networks: A General End-to-End Framework for Multi-asset Quantitative Strategies," Papers 2307.05522, arXiv.org.
    3. Lee, Charles M.C. & Sun, Stephen Teng & Wang, Rongfei & Zhang, Ran, 2019. "Technological links and predictable returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(3), pages 76-96.
    4. George M. Korniotis & Alok Kumar, 2013. "State-Level Business Cycles and Local Return Predictability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1037-1096, June.
    5. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Mark Grinblatt, 1999. "Do Industries Explain Momentum?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1249-1290, August.
    6. Wee Ling Tan & Stephen Roberts & Stefan Zohren, 2023. "Spatio-Temporal Momentum: Jointly Learning Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Strategies," Papers 2302.10175, arXiv.org.
    7. Christopher A Parsons & Riccardo Sabbatucci & Sheridan Titman, 2020. "Geographic Lead-Lag Effects," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(10), pages 4721-4770.
    8. Kieran Wood & Sven Giegerich & Stephen Roberts & Stefan Zohren, 2021. "Trading with the Momentum Transformer: An Intelligent and Interpretable Architecture," Papers 2112.08534, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    9. Lauren Cohen & Andrea Frazzini, 2008. "Economic Links and Predictable Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1977-2011, August.
    10. Ali, Usman & Hirshleifer, David, 2020. "Shared analyst coverage: Unifying momentum spillover effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 649-675.
    11. Boni, Leslie & Womack, Kent L., 2006. "Analysts, Industries, and Price Momentum," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 85-109, March.
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