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Empirical analysis in limit order book modeling for Nikkei 225 Stocks with Cox-type intensities

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  • Shunya Chomei

Abstract

In this paper, we build on the analysis of Muni Toke and Yoshida (2020) and conduct several empirical studies using high-frequency financial data. Muni Toke and Yoshida (2020) showed the consistency and asymptotic behavior of the Cox-type model estimators for relative intensities of orders in the limit order book, and then by using high-frequency trading data for 36 stocks traded on the Paris Stock Exchange, they carry out model selection and trading sign prediction. In this study, we add new covariates and carry out model selection and trading sign prediction using high-frequency trading data for 222 stocks traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. We not only show that the Cox-type model performs well in the Japanese market as well as in the Euronext Paris market, but also present the key factors for more accurate estimation. We also suggest how often the covariates should be calibrated.

Suggested Citation

  • Shunya Chomei, 2023. "Empirical analysis in limit order book modeling for Nikkei 225 Stocks with Cox-type intensities," Papers 2302.01668, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2302.01668
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xiaofei Lu & Frédéric Abergel, 2018. "High-dimensional Hawkes processes for limit order books: modelling, empirical analysis and numerical calibration," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 249-264, February.
    2. Mehdi Lallouache & Damien Challet, 2016. "The limits of statistical significance of Hawkes processes fitted to financial data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, January.
    3. Ioane Muni Toke & Fabrizio Pomponio, 2012. "Modelling Trades-Through in a Limit Order Book Using Hawkes Processes," Post-Print hal-00745554, HAL.
    4. Ioane Muni Toke & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2020. "Analyzing order flows in limit order books with ratios of Cox-type intensities," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 81-98, January.
    5. Toke, Ioane Muni & Pomponio, Fabrizio, 2012. "Modelling trades-through in a limit order book using hawkes processes," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-23.
    6. Marcello Rambaldi & Emmanuel Bacry & Fabrizio Lillo, 2017. "The role of volume in order book dynamics: a multivariate Hawkes process analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 999-1020, July.
    7. Zoltán Eisler & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Julien Kockelkoren, 2012. "The price impact of order book events: market orders, limit orders and cancellations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(9), pages 1395-1419, September.
    8. Ioane Muni Toke & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2017. "Modelling intensities of order flows in a limit order book," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 683-701, May.
    9. Maxime Morariu-Patrichi & Mikko S. Pakkanen, 2022. "State-dependent Hawkes processes and their application to limit order book modelling," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 563-583, March.
    10. Xiaofei Lu & Frédéric Abergel, 2018. "High dimensional Hawkes processes for limit order books Modelling, empirical analysis and numerical calibration," Post-Print hal-01686122, HAL.
    11. Ioane Muni Toke & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2017. "Modelling intensities of order flows in a limit order book," Post-Print hal-01705080, HAL.
    12. Ioane Muni Toke & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2020. "Analyzing order flows in limit order books with ratios of Cox-type intensities," Post-Print hal-01799398, HAL.
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