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Modelling intensities of order flows in a limit order book

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  • Ioane Muni Toke
  • Nakahiro Yoshida

Abstract

We propose a parametric model for the simulation of limit order books. We assume that limit orders, market orders and cancellations are submitted according to point processes with state-dependent intensities. We propose new functional forms for these intensities, as well as new models for the placement of limit orders and cancellations. For cancellations, we introduce the concept of ‘priority index’ to describe the selection of orders to be cancelled in the order book. Parameters of the model are estimated using likelihood maximization. We illustrate the performance of the model by providing extensive simulation results, with a comparison to empirical data and a standard Poisson reference.

Suggested Citation

  • Ioane Muni Toke & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2017. "Modelling intensities of order flows in a limit order book," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 683-701, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:17:y:2017:i:5:p:683-701
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2016.1236210
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mike, Szabolcs & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2008. "An empirical behavioral model of liquidity and volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 200-234, January.
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    3. Eric Smith & J Doyne Farmer & Laszlo Gillemot & Supriya Krishnamurthy, 2003. "Statistical theory of the continuous double auction," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 481-514.
    4. Ioane Muni Toke, 2011. ""Market making" behaviour in an order book model and its impact on the bid-ask spread," Post-Print hal-01705266, HAL.
    5. Rama Cont & Adrien De Larrard, 2012. "Order book dynamics in liquid markets: limit theorems and diffusion approximations," Papers 1202.6412, arXiv.org.
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    7. Weibing Huang & Charles-Albert Lehalle & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2015. "Simulating and Analyzing Order Book Data: The Queue-Reactive Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(509), pages 107-122, March.
    8. Weibing Huang & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2015. "Ergodicity and diffusivity of Markovian order book models: a general framework," Papers 1505.04936, arXiv.org.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nakahiro Yoshida, 2022. "Quasi-likelihood analysis and its applications," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 43-60, April.
    2. Ioane Muni Toke & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2020. "Marked point processes and intensity ratios for limit order book modeling," Papers 2001.08442, arXiv.org.
    3. Ioane Muni Toke & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2022. "Marked point processes and intensity ratios for limit order book modeling," Post-Print hal-02465428, HAL.
    4. Chu, Gang & Zhang, Yongjie & Zhang, Xiaotao, 2021. "An analysis of impact of cancellation activity on market quality: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    5. Bilodeau, Yann, 2020. "Deep limit order book events dynamics," Working Papers 20-4, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    6. Da Fonseca, José & Malevergne, Yannick, 2021. "A simple microstructure model based on the Cox-BESQ process with application to optimal execution policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    7. Ioane Muni Toke, 2017. "Stationary Distribution Of The Volume At The Best Quote In A Poisson Order Book Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(06), pages 1-22, September.
    8. Ioane Muni Toke & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2020. "Analyzing order flows in limit order books with ratios of Cox-type intensities," Post-Print hal-01799398, HAL.
    9. Shunya Chomei, 2023. "Empirical analysis in limit order book modeling for Nikkei 225 Stocks with Cox-type intensities," Papers 2302.01668, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    10. Lahmiri, Salim & Bekiros, Stelios, 2020. "Nonlinear analysis of Casablanca Stock Exchange, Dow Jones and S&P500 industrial sectors with a comparison," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 539(C).
    11. Ioane Muni Toke & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2019. "Analyzing order flows in limit order books with ratios of Cox-type intensities," Working Papers hal-01799398, HAL.
    12. Ioane Muni Toke & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2018. "Analyzing order flows in limit order books with ratios of Cox-type intensities," Papers 1805.06682, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2019.

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