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Exit, Voice and Political Change: Evidence from Swedish Mass Migration to the United States; A Comment

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  • Per Pettersson-Lidbom

Abstract

In this comment, I revisit the question raised in Karadja and Prawitz (2019) concerning a causal relationship between mass emigration and long-run political outcomes. I discuss a number of potential problems with their instrumental variable analysis. First, there are at least three reasons why their instrument violates the exclusion restriction: (i) failing to control for internal migration, (ii) insufficient control for confounders correlated with their instrument, and (iii) emigration measured with a nonclassical measurement error. Second, I also discuss two problems with the statistical inference, both of which indicate that the instrument does not fulfill the relevance condition, i.e., the instrument is not sufficiently correlated with the endogenous variable emigration. Correcting for any of these problems reveals that there is no relationship between emigration and political outcomes.

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  • Per Pettersson-Lidbom, 2022. "Exit, Voice and Political Change: Evidence from Swedish Mass Migration to the United States; A Comment," Papers 2201.04880, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2201.04880
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Melvin Stephens & Takashi Unayama, 2019. "Estimating the Impacts of Program Benefits: Using Instrumental Variables with Underreported and Imputed Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 468-475, July.
    2. David Andersson & Mounir Karadja & Erik Prawitz, 2022. "Mass Migration and Technological Change," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(5), pages 1859-1896.
    3. Michael Keane & Timothy Neal, 2021. "A Practical Guide to Weak Instruments," Discussion Papers 2021-05c, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    4. Bound, John & Brown, Charles & Mathiowetz, Nancy, 2001. "Measurement error in survey data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 59, pages 3705-3843, Elsevier.
    5. Pettersson-Lidbom, Per, 2020. "Exit, Voice and Political Change: Evidence from Swedish Mass Migration to the United States A Comment," Research Papers in Economics 2020:3, Stockholm University, Department of Economics, revised 20 Sep 2020.
    6. Michael Keane & Timothy Neal, 2021. "A Practical Guide to Weak Instruments," Discussion Papers 2021-05b, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pettersson-Lidbom, Per, 2020. "Exit, Voice and Political Change: Evidence from Swedish Mass Migration to the United States A Comment," Research Papers in Economics 2020:3, Stockholm University, Department of Economics, revised 20 Sep 2020.
    2. Karadja, Mounir & Prawitz, Erik, 2020. "A response to Pettersson-Lidbom’s “Exit, Voice and Political Change: Evidence from Swedish Mass Migration to the United States – a Comment”," Working Paper Series 2020:5, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    3. Pettersson-Lidbom, Per, 2022. "Exit, Voice and Political Change: Evidence from Swedish Mass Migration to the United States. A Comment on Karadja and Prawitz (Journal of Political Economy, 2019)," Journal of Comments and Replications in Economics (JCRE), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 1(2022-3), pages 1-13.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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