IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2011.13132.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Generative Learning of Heterogeneous Tail Dependence

Author

Listed:
  • Xiangqian Sun
  • Xing Yan
  • Qi Wu

Abstract

We propose a multivariate generative model to capture the complex dependence structure often encountered in business and financial data. Our model features heterogeneous and asymmetric tail dependence between all pairs of individual dimensions while also allowing heterogeneity and asymmetry in the tails of the marginals. A significant merit of our model structure is that it is not prone to error propagation in the parameter estimation process, hence very scalable, as the dimensions of datasets grow large. However, the likelihood methods are infeasible for parameter estimation in our case due to the lack of a closed-form density function. Instead, we devise a novel moment learning algorithm to learn the parameters. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the model and its estimator, we test them on simulated as well as real-world datasets. Results show that this framework gives better finite-sample performance compared to the copula-based benchmarks as well as recent similar models.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiangqian Sun & Xing Yan & Qi Wu, 2020. "Generative Learning of Heterogeneous Tail Dependence," Papers 2011.13132, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2011.13132
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2011.13132
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aas, Kjersti & Czado, Claudia & Frigessi, Arnoldo & Bakken, Henrik, 2009. "Pair-copula constructions of multiple dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 182-198, April.
    2. Dong Hwan Oh & Andrew J. Patton, 2018. "Time-Varying Systemic Risk: Evidence From a Dynamic Copula Model of CDS Spreads," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 181-195, April.
    3. Cornelia Savu & Mark Trede, 2010. "Hierarchies of Archimedean copulas," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 295-304.
    4. Dong Hwan Oh & Andrew J. Patton, 2017. "Modeling Dependence in High Dimensions With Factor Copulas," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 139-154, January.
    5. Alexander J. McNeil & Rüdiger Frey & Paul Embrechts, 2015. "Quantitative Risk Management: Concepts, Techniques and Tools Revised edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10496.
    6. McFadden, Daniel, 1989. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models without Numerical Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 995-1026, September.
    7. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    8. Paul Glasserman & Philip Heidelberger & Perwez Shahabuddin, 2002. "Portfolio Value‐at‐Risk with Heavy‐Tailed Risk Factors," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 239-269, July.
    9. Kole, Erik & Koedijk, Kees & Verbeek, Marno, 2007. "Selecting copulas for risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2405-2423, August.
    10. Michael S. Smith & Quan Gan & Robert J. Kohn, 2012. "Modelling dependence using skew t copulas: Bayesian inference and applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 500-522, April.
    11. Xing Yan & Qi Wu & Wen Zhang, 2019. "Cross-sectional Learning of Extremal Dependence among Financial Assets," Papers 1905.13425, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
    12. Owen, Joel & Rabinovitch, Ramon, 1983. "On the Class of Elliptical Distributions and Their Applications to the Theory of Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 745-752, June.
    13. David M. Zimmer, 2012. "The Role of Copulas in the Housing Crisis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 607-620, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Manner, Hans & Alavi Fard, Farzad & Pourkhanali, Armin & Tafakori, Laleh, 2019. "Forecasting the joint distribution of Australian electricity prices using dynamic vine copulae," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 143-164.
    2. Manner, Hans & Stark, Florian & Wied, Dominik, 2019. "Testing for structural breaks in factor copula models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 324-345.
    3. Simon Fritzsch & Maike Timphus & Gregor Weiss, 2021. "Marginals Versus Copulas: Which Account For More Model Risk In Multivariate Risk Forecasting?," Papers 2109.10946, arXiv.org.
    4. Stanislav Anatolyev & Vladimir Pyrlik, 2021. "Shrinkage for Gaussian and t Copulas in Ultra-High Dimensions," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp699, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    5. Smith, Michael Stanley, 2023. "Implicit Copulas: An Overview," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 81-104.
    6. Michael Stanley Smith, 2021. "Implicit Copulas: An Overview," Papers 2109.04718, arXiv.org.
    7. Mayer, Alexander & Wied, Dominik, 2023. "Estimation and inference in factor copula models with exogenous covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1500-1521.
    8. de Carvalho, Pablo Jose Campos & Gupta, Aparna, 2018. "A network approach to unravel asset price comovement using minimal dependence structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 119-132.
    9. Dong Hwan Oh & Andrew J. Patton, 2017. "Modeling Dependence in High Dimensions With Factor Copulas," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 139-154, January.
    10. Anne Opschoor & André Lucas & István Barra & Dick van Dijk, 2021. "Closed-Form Multi-Factor Copula Models With Observation-Driven Dynamic Factor Loadings," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 1066-1079, October.
    11. Hofert, Marius & Prasad, Avinash & Zhu, Mu, 2022. "Multivariate time-series modeling with generative neural networks," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 147-164.
    12. Manner, Hans & Türk, Dennis & Eichler, Michael, 2016. "Modeling and forecasting multivariate electricity price spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 255-265.
    13. Patton, Andrew, 2013. "Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 899-960, Elsevier.
    14. Quanrui Song & Jianxu Liu & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2019. "Risk Measurement of Stock Markets in BRICS, G7, and G20: Vine Copulas versus Factor Copulas," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-16, March.
    15. Patton, Andrew J., 2012. "A review of copula models for economic time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 4-18.
    16. Matthias Pelster & Johannes Vilsmeier, 2018. "The determinants of CDS spreads: evidence from the model space," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 63-118, April.
    17. Zhu, Wenjun & Wang, Chou-Wen & Tan, Ken Seng, 2016. "Structure and estimation of Lévy subordinated hierarchical Archimedean copulas (LSHAC): Theory and empirical tests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 20-36.
    18. Bartels, Mariana & Ziegelmann, Flavio A., 2016. "Market risk forecasting for high dimensional portfolios via factor copulas with GAS dynamics," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 66-79.
    19. Alexander J. McNeil, 2021. "Modelling Volatile Time Series with V-Transforms and Copulas," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-26, January.
    20. Fernanda Maria Müller & Marcelo Brutti Righi, 2024. "Comparison of Value at Risk (VaR) Multivariate Forecast Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(1), pages 75-110, January.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2011.13132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.