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Simulation-based optimisation of the timing of loan recovery across different portfolios

Author

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  • Arno Botha
  • Conrad Beyers
  • Pieter de Villiers

Abstract

A novel procedure is presented for the objective comparison and evaluation of a bank's decision rules in optimising the timing of loan recovery. This procedure is based on finding a delinquency threshold at which the financial loss of a loan portfolio (or segment therein) is minimised. Our procedure is an expert system that incorporates the time value of money, costs, and the fundamental trade-off between accumulating arrears versus forsaking future interest revenue. Moreover, the procedure can be used with different delinquency measures (other than payments in arrears), thereby allowing an indirect comparison of these measures. We demonstrate the system across a range of credit risk scenarios and portfolio compositions. The computational results show that threshold optima can exist across all reasonable values of both the payment probability (default risk) and the loss rate (loan collateral). In addition, the procedure reacts positively to portfolios afflicted by either systematic defaults (such as during an economic downturn) or episodic delinquency (i.e., cycles of curing and re-defaulting). In optimising a portfolio's recovery decision, our procedure can better inform the quantitative aspects of a bank's collection policy than relying on arbitrary discretion alone.

Suggested Citation

  • Arno Botha & Conrad Beyers & Pieter de Villiers, 2020. "Simulation-based optimisation of the timing of loan recovery across different portfolios," Papers 2009.11064, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2009.11064
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Arno Botha & Esmerelda Oberholzer & Janette Larney & Riaan de Jongh, 2023. "Defining and comparing SICR-events for classifying impaired loans under IFRS 9," Papers 2303.03080, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    2. Victor Dragotă, 2022. "How Important is the Time Value of Money in Decision Making? Results of an Experiment," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2022(3-4), pages 259-275.
    3. Janette Larney & James Samuel Allison & Gerrit Lodewicus Grobler & Marius Smuts, 2023. "Modelling the Time to Write-Off of Non-Performing Loans Using a Promotion Time Cure Model with Parametric Frailty," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-17, May.
    4. Arno Botha & Conrad Beyers & Pieter de Villiers, 2020. "The loss optimisation of loan recovery decision times using forecast cash flows," Papers 2010.05601, arXiv.org.

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