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On the modelling of prognosis from delinquency to normal performance on retail consumer loans

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  • Richard Chamboko

    (New University of Lisbon)

  • Jorge M. Bravo

    (New University of Lisbon)

Abstract

This paper addressed the neglected area of modelling recovery from delinquency to normal performance on retail consumer loans taking into account the recurrent nature of delinquency and also including time-dependent macroeconomic variables. Using data from a lending company in Zimbabwe, we provided a comprehensive analysis of the recovery patterns using the extended Cox model. The findings vividly showed that behavioural variables were the most important in understanding recovery patterns of obligors. This confirms and underscores the importance of using behavioural models to understand the recovery patterns of obligors in order to prevent credit loss. The study also points to the urgent need for policy measures aimed at promoting economic growth for the stabilisation of consumer welfare and the financial system at large.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Chamboko & Jorge M. Bravo, 2016. "On the modelling of prognosis from delinquency to normal performance on retail consumer loans," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(4), pages 264-287, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:risman:v:18:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1057_s41283-016-0006-4
    DOI: 10.1057/s41283-016-0006-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Adriana Uquillas, 2017. "Determinantes del riesgo comportamental en préstamos de consumo y microcrédito: Un estudio de caso en Centro América," Revista de Investigación en Ciencias Contables y Administrativas, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Facultad de Contaduría y Ciencias Administrativas, vol. 3(1), pages 35-66, July.
    2. Richard Chamboko, 2024. "Digital financial services adoption: a retrospective time-to-event analysis approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-27, December.
    3. Richard Chamboko & Jorge Miguel Bravo, 2020. "A Multi-State Approach to Modelling Intermediate Events and Multiple Mortgage Loan Outcomes," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-29, June.

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