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Jan Tinbergen's legacy for economic networks: from the gravity model to quantum statistics

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  • Tiziano Squartini
  • Diego Garlaschelli
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    Abstract

    Jan Tinbergen, the first recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics in 1969, obtained his PhD in physics at the University of Leiden under the supervision of Paul Ehrenfest in 1929. Among many achievements as an economist after his training as a physicist, Tinbergen proposed the so-called Gravity Model of international trade. The model predicts that the intensity of trade between two countries is described by a formula similar to Newton's law of gravitation, where mass is replaced by Gross Domestic Product. Since Tinbergen's proposal, the Gravity Model has become the standard model of non-zero trade flows in macroeconomics. However, its intrinsic limitation is the prediction of a completely connected network, which fails to explain the observed intricate topology of international trade. Recent network models overcome this limitation by describing the real network as a member of a maximum-entropy statistical ensemble. The resulting expressions are formally analogous to quantum statistics: the international trade network is found to closely follow the Fermi-Dirac statistics in its purely binary topology, and the recently proposed mixed Bose-Fermi statistics in its full (binary plus weighted) structure. This seemingly esoteric result is actually a simple effect of the heterogeneity of world countries, that imposes strong structural constraints on the network. Our discussion highlights similarities and differences between macroeconomics and statistical-physics approaches to economic networks.

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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1304.3252
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    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1304.3252.

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    Date of creation: Apr 2013
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    Publication status: Published in in Econophysics of Agent-Based Models (series: New Economic Windows 8/2014), chapter 9, pp. 161-186, Springer (edited by F. Abergel, H. Ayoama, B. K. Chakrabarti, A. Chakraborti and A. Gosh) (2014)
    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1304.3252

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    Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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    1. James E. Anderson, 2010. "The Gravity Model," NBER Working Papers 16576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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