Transition Probability Matrix Methodology for Incremental Risk Charge
AbstractAs part of Basel II's incremental risk charge (IRC) methodology, this paper summarizes our extensive investigations of constructing transition probability matrices (TPMs) for unsecuritized credit products in the trading book. The objective is to create monthly or quarterly TPMs with predefined sectors and ratings that are consistent with the bank's Basel PDs. Constructing a TPM is not a unique process. We highlight various aspects of three types of uncertainties embedded in different construction methods: 1) the available historical data and the bank's rating philosophy; 2) the merger of one-year Basel PD and the chosen Moody's TPMs; and 3) deriving a monthly or quarterly TPM when the generator matrix does not exist. Given the fact that TPMs and specifically their PDs are the most important parameters in IRC, it is our view that banks may need to make discretionary choices regarding their methodology, with uncertainties well understood and managed.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1102.3857.
Date of creation: Feb 2011
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Web page: http://arxiv.org/
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-02-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2011-02-26 (Banking)
- NEP-RMG-2011-02-26 (Risk Management)
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- Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
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