Comparing Environmental Impact of Alternative CAP Scenarios Estimated Through an Artificial Neural Network
AbstractThe paper aims to assess environmental impact produced by alternative Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) scenarios in the Italian Marche region for the period 2000-2002. Scenarios concern alternative hypotheses about direct payments for arable crops related to Agenda 2000. For this aim, a Multilayer Feedforward Neural Network model (MFNN) was applied. Different from traditional models, MFNN is able to analyze complex patterns quickly and with a high degree of accuracy. Moreover, MFNN makes assumptions about neither the underlying population nor the existence of optimising behaviour and uses the data to develop an internal representation of the complexity characterising the system analysed. The results indicate that direct payments produced positive environmental effects compared to the hypothesis of absence of direct payments. Moreover, they show that it would have been even better, from an environmental point of view, if Agenda 2000 had been more radical in comparison to the 1992 Mac Sharry reform, by introducing decoupled direct payments.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali in its series Working Papers with number 269.
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision:
common agricultural policy; direct payments; environmental impact; neural networks;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
- Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
- Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2006-10-21 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2006-10-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2006-10-21 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2006-10-21 (Environmental Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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