Succes and Failure of Technical Trading Strategies in the Cocoa Futures Markets
AbstractA large set of 5350 trend following technical trading rules is applied to LIFFE and CSCE cocoa futures prices, and to the Pound-Dollar exchange rate, in the period 1983:1 - 1997:6. We find that 72% of the trading rules generates positive profits, even when correcting for transaction and borrowing costs, when applied to the LIFFE cocoa futures prices. Moreover, a large set of trading rules exhibits statistically significant forecasting power of the LIFFE cocoa futures series. On the other hand the same set of strategies performs poor on the CSCE cocoa futures prices, with only 18% generating positive net profits and hardly any statistically significant forecasting power. The large difference in the performance of technical trading may be attributed to a combination of the demand/supply mechanism in the cocoa market and an accidental influence of the Pound-Dollar exchange rate, reinforcing trends in the LIFFE cocoa futures but weakening trends in the CSCE cocoa futures. Our case-study suggests a connection between the succes and failure of technical trading and the relative magnitudes of trend and volatility of the underlying series.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Working Papers with number 00-06.
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
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Postal: Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Phone: + 31 20 525 52 58
Fax: + 31 20 525 52 83
Web page: http://www.fee.uva.nl/cendef/
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Technical trading strategies; commodity futures; exchange rate.;
Other versions of this item:
- Peter Boswijk & Gerwin Griffioen & Cars Hommes, 2001. "Success and Failure of Technical Trading Strategies in the Cocoa Futures Market," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-016/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Boswijk, H.P., Griffioen, G.A.W., Hommes, C.H., 2001. "Succes and Failure of Technical Trading Strategies in the Cocoa Futures Market," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 120, Society for Computational Economics.
- Gerwin Griffioen & Peter Boswijk & Cars Hommes, 2001. "Success and Failure of Technical Trading Strategies in the Cocoa Futures Market," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 4A.4, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
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- Carl Chiarella & Tony He & Cars H. Hommes, 2005.
"A Dynamic Analysis of Moving Average Rules,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
05-057/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He & Cars Hommes, 2004. "A Dynamic Analysis of Moving Average Rules," Research Paper Series 133, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Cars Hommes & Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2004. "A Dynamical Analysis of Moving Average Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 238, Society for Computational Economics.
- Chiarella, C. & He, X.-Z. & Hommes, C.H., 2004. "A Dynamic Analysis of Moving Average Rules," CeNDEF Working Papers 04-14, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Colin Fyfe & John Paul Marney & Heather Tarbert, 2005. "Risk adjusted returns from technical trading: a genetic programming approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(15), pages 1073-1077.
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