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Aids And Economic Growth In South Africa

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  • Smith, Rodney B.W.
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    Abstract

    Morbidity and mortality effects are introduced into a three sector, Ramsey-type model of economic growth. The model is calibrated to South African national accounts data and used to examine the potential impact of HIV/AIDS on economic growth. Simulation results suggest a 10% decrease in the size of the effective labor force would lead to a 10% decrease in the long run (steady state) GDP levels. Similarly, a 10% decrease in the number of laborers would lead to an 11% drop in long run GDP.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28072
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of the Free State, Department of Agricultural Economics in its series Conference Papers with number 28072.

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    Date of creation: 2003
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:ufstcp:28072

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    Web page: http://www.uovs.ac.za/agric-econ
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    Keywords: Health Economics and Policy; International Development; Labor and Human Capital;

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    1. Channing Arndt & Jeffrey D. Lewis, 2001. "The HIV|AIDS pandemic in South Africa: sectoral impacts and unemployment," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 427-449.
    2. Clive Bell & Shantayanan Devarajan & Hans Gersbach, 2003. "The long-run economic costs of AIDS : theory and an application to South Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3152, The World Bank.
    3. C Arndt & J D Lewis, 2000. "The Macro Implications of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: A Preliminary Assessment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 380-392, December.
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