IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332887.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Build Today, Regret Tomorrow? Infrastructure and Climate Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Baldwin, Elizabeth
  • Cai, Yongyang
  • Kuralbayeva, Karlygash

Abstract

The timing of optimal policy to combat climate change is controversial: while some advocate a "gradual slope" in policy, others emphasize the importance of redirecting investments rapidly if we hope to meet a "2 degree" goal. We consider this question in the light of irreversible "dirty" and "clean" investments, such as in coal-fi_x000c_red and solar electricity generation. This leads to a "Reverse Green Paradox": the knowledge of an increasing carbon tax will reduce investments in assets that pollute, and so reduce emissions in the short term. This contrasts with the well-known effects of such policy on the suppliers of fossil fuels, such as coal mines. So stranded assets play opposing roles, depending on whether these assets supply or demand fossil fuels. Additionally, we show that it is optimal to begin deployment of clean technologies early, if their cost decreases with their cumulative deployment (as has been clearly observed for solar power). We derive these results theoretically, and quantify optimal policies in a dynamic general equilibrium climate-economy model.

Suggested Citation

  • Baldwin, Elizabeth & Cai, Yongyang & Kuralbayeva, Karlygash, 2017. "Build Today, Regret Tomorrow? Infrastructure and Climate Policy," Conference papers 332887, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332887
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332887/files/8447.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Weitzman, Martin L., 2010. "What Is the "Damages Function" for Global Warming — And What Difference Might It Make?," Scholarly Articles 33373343, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2012. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 131-166, February.
    3. Philippe Aghion & Antoine Dechezleprêtre & David Hémous & Ralf Martin & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency, and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 1-51.
    4. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2015. "Introductory Comment–The Green Paradox: A Supply-Side View of the Climate Problem," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 9(2), pages 239-245.
    5. Armon Rezai & Frederick Van Der Ploeg, 2017. "Abandoning Fossil Fuel: How Fast and How Much," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 85(S2), pages 16-44, December.
    6. William Nordhaus, 2014. "Estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon: Concepts and Results from the DICE-2013R Model and Alternative Approaches," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 000.
    7. Martin L. Weitzman, 2014. "Fat Tails and the Social Cost of Carbon," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 544-546, May.
    8. K. J. Arrow, 1971. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 11, pages 131-149, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. Armon Rezai & Frederick Ploeg, 2017. "Second-Best Renewable Subsidies to De-carbonize the Economy: Commitment and the Green Paradox," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 66(3), pages 409-434, March.
    10. Martin L. Weitzman, 2010. "What Is The "Damages Function" For Global Warming — And What Difference Might It Make?," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 57-69.
    11. Roger Fouquet, 2016. "Path dependence in energy systems and economic development," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 1(8), pages 1-5, August.
    12. Nicholas Stern, 2016. "Economics: Current climate models are grossly misleading," Nature, Nature, vol. 530(7591), pages 407-409, February.
    13. Rozenberg, Julie & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Hallegatte, Stephane, 2014. "Transition to clean capital, irreversible investment and stranded assets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6859, The World Bank.
    14. Arrow, Kenneth J & Kurz, Mordecai, 1970. "Optimal Growth with Irreversible Investment in a Ramsey Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(2), pages 331-344, March.
    15. Robert S. Pindyck, 2017. "The Use and Misuse of Models for Climate Policy," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(1), pages 100-114.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elizabeth Baldwin, Yongyang Cai, Karlygash Kuralbayeva, 2018. "To build or not to build? Capital stocks and climate policy," GRI Working Papers 290, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    2. Baldwin, Elizabeth & Cai, Yongyang & Kuralbayeva, Karlygash, 2020. "To build or not to build? Capital stocks and climate policy∗," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Rezai, Armon & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2017. "Climate policies under climate model uncertainty: Max-min and min-max regret," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S1), pages 4-16.
    4. Moritz A. Drupp & Martin C. Hänsel, 2021. "Relative Prices and Climate Policy: How the Scarcity of Nonmarket Goods Drives Policy Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 168-201, February.
    5. Kornek, Ulrike & Klenert, David & Edenhofer, Ottmar & Fleurbaey, Marc, 2021. "The social cost of carbon and inequality: When local redistribution shapes global carbon prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    6. Naqvi, Asjad & Stockhammer, Engelbert, 2018. "Directed Technological Change in a Post-Keynesian Ecological Macromodel," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 168-188.
    7. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.T., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    8. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rezai, Armon, 2019. "The agnostic's response to climate deniers: Price carbon!," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 70-84.
    9. Lint Barrage, 2020. "Optimal Dynamic Carbon Taxes in a Climate–Economy Model with Distortionary Fiscal Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(1), pages 1-39.
    10. Fankhauser, Samuel & Jotzo, Frank, 2017. "Economic growth and development with low-carbon energy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86850, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rezai, Armon, 2017. "Cumulative emissions, unburnable fossil fuel, and the optimal carbon tax," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 216-222.
    12. Agliardi, Elettra & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2022. "Temperature targets, deep uncertainty and extreme events in the design of optimal climate policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    13. Jin, Wei & Shi, Xunpeng & Zhang, Lin, 2021. "Energy transition without dirty capital stranding," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    14. Stern, Nicholas & Valero, Anna, 2021. "Innovation, growth and the transition to net-zero emissions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(9).
    15. Richard S.J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have not changed over time," Working Paper Series 0821, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    16. Renaud Coulomb & Oskar Lecuyer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2019. "Optimal Transition from Coal to Gas and Renewable Power Under Capacity Constraints and Adjustment Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(2), pages 557-590, June.
    17. Lamperti, Francesco & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2020. "Green Transitions And The Prevention Of Environmental Disasters: Market-Based Vs. Command-And-Control Policies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(7), pages 1861-1880, October.
    18. Mattauch, Linus & Creutzig, Felix & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2015. "Avoiding carbon lock-in: Policy options for advancing structural change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 49-63.
    19. Olijslagers, Stan & van der Ploeg, Frederick & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2023. "On current and future carbon prices in a risky world," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    20. Amigues, Jean-Pierre & Moreaux, Michel, 2019. "Energy Conversion Rate Improvements, Pollution Abatement Efforts and Energy Mix: The Transition toward the Green Economy under a Pollution Stock Constraint," TSE Working Papers 19-994, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332887. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.