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Documentation of a Dynamic and Simultaneous Econometric Model of the U.S. Dairy Industry

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  • Bailey, Kenneth W.

Abstract

The objective of this report is to publish a monthly forecasting tool of the U.S. dairy industry. This model forecasts the milk supply as well as the supply and demand for American cheese, Other cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk, and dry whey. Trade is presently exogenous to the model, but can be endogenized at a later date. The principal use of the model will be for forecasting purposes, thus we settled on a monthly frequency for the data. We delve into the complexities of the U.S. dairy industry using rich data sources. Our objective is clearly focused on developing an initial forecasting tool.

Suggested Citation

  • Bailey, Kenneth W., 2009. "Documentation of a Dynamic and Simultaneous Econometric Model of the U.S. Dairy Industry," Staff Paper Series 48653, Pennsylvania State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:psusps:48653
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.48653
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/48653/files/381_Bailey_Model%20Documentation%20Final.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew M. Novakovic & Robert L. Thompson, 1977. "The Impact of Imports of Manufactured Milk Products on the U.S. Dairy Industry," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 59(3), pages 507-519.
    2. Liu, Donald J. & Kaiser, Harry M. & Mount, Timothy D. & Forker, Olan D., 1991. "Modeling The U.S. Dairy Sector With Government Intervention," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 16(2), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Liu, Donald J. & Sun, Chin-Hwa & Kaiser, Harry M., 1995. "Market Conduct Under Government Price Intervention In The U.S. Dairy Industry," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Dale Heien, 1977. "Price Determination Processes for Agricultural Sector Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 59(1), pages 126-132.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mosheim, Roberto, 2012. "A Quarterly Econometric Model for Short-Term Forecasting of the U.S. Dairy Industry," Technical Bulletins 184305, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

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    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Marketing;

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