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Global water demand projections: past, present and future

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  • Amarasinghe, Upali A.
  • Smakhtin, Vladimir

Abstract

A review of global water demand projections (WDPs) show substantial overpredictions or under-predictions. The pre-1990 WDPs, with population as the main driver of change, overpredicted current water use by 20 to 130%. The post-1990 WDPs, with sophisticated modeling frameworks, show substantial underestimation under the ‘business-as-usual’ scenarios and are more downward biased under sustainable scenarios. Overall, the value of long-term country-level projections in global WDPs is inadequate for local water resource planning. To increase the accuracy and value of global WDPs, future WDPs should take into account the spatial variation and influence of rapidly changing key exogenous and endogenous drivers of water demand in different sectors across and within countries, and provide a sensitivity analysis of projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Amarasinghe, Upali A. & Smakhtin, Vladimir, 2014. "Global water demand projections: past, present and future," IWMI Reports 201006, International Water Management Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iwmirp:201006
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.201006
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    5. David D. J. Antia, 2016. "ZVI (Fe 0 ) Desalination: Stability of Product Water," Resources, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-47, March.
    6. Liu, Jing & Hertel, Thomas & Lammers, Richard & Prusevich, Alexander & Baldos, Uris Lantz & Grogan, Danielle & Frolking, Steve, 2016. "Achieving Sustainable Irrigation Water Withdrawals: Global Impacts on Food Production and Land Use," Conference papers 332691, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Arowoshegbe, Amos & Emeni, Francis & Uniamikogbo, Emmanuel, 2018. "Impact Of Water Accounting On Water Supply In Nigeria," International Journal of Contemporary Accounting Issues-IJCAI (formerly International Journal of Accounting & Finance IJAF), The Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN), vol. 7(2), pages 160-183, December.
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    10. A. Narayanamoorthy & N. Devika & M. Bhattarai, 2016. "More Crop and Profit per Drop of Water: Drip Irrigation for Empowering Distressed Small Farmers," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 5(1), pages 83-90, January.
    11. Caldera, Upeksha & Breyer, Christian, 2020. "Strengthening the global water supply through a decarbonised global desalination sector and improved irrigation systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    12. Yufeng Luo & Seydou Traore & Xinwei Lyu & Weiguang Wang & Ying Wang & Yongyu Xie & Xiyun Jiao & Guy Fipps, 2015. "Medium Range Daily Reference Evapotranspiration Forecasting by Using ANN and Public Weather Forecasts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3863-3876, August.
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