IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iaae18/277264.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Irrigation and Climate Effects on Land Productivity in the U.S. Central Plains

Author

Listed:
  • Trindade, F.
  • Fulginiti, L.
  • Perrin, R.

Abstract

Considering different scenarios of future trends in climate, several authors have found that the impact that climate change will have on agriculture will most likely be negative. Most of these studies consider regions with low level of irrigation and do not control for purchased farm inputs. An important step towards understanding the evolution of agricultural production is to carefully estimate the effect that different temperatures and precipitation have on agricultural productivity considering also inputs under farmers control and the farmers profit-maximizing behavior. This research develops a county level biomass production function for an 800-mile climatic gradient from the Rocky Mountains to the Mississippi River (41N). Our results quantify the critical effects that high temperatures have on agricultural productivity in the region, after controlling for irrigation, other managed inputs, soil characteristics, precipitation, and technological change. We find a negative and increasing (nonlinear) effect of temperatures over 30 C on crop yields; a full day of temperatures between 30 C and 35 C decreases expected yield by 1.7% and a day of temperatures over 35 C decreases yields by 23.1%. In addition, converting rainfed crops to irrigated crop will produce a sharp decrease in the negative impact of the higher temperature interval. Acknowledgement : Support is acknowledged from the Agricultural Research Division s Strategic Investments: Enhancing Interdisciplinary Teams Program Forty-First Parallel Agro-Ecosystem Sustainability and Productivity, University of Nebraska, and from USDA, NIFA NEB-24-164 and NEB-24-172.

Suggested Citation

  • Trindade, F. & Fulginiti, L. & Perrin, R., 2018. "Irrigation and Climate Effects on Land Productivity in the U.S. Central Plains," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277264, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae18:277264
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.277264
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/277264/files/1500.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.277264?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Bootstrap inference in econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(4), pages 615-645, November.
    2. Vernon W. Ruttan, 2002. "Productivity Growth in World Agriculture: Sources and Constraints," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 161-184, Fall.
    3. Jacobs,Rowena & Smith,Peter C. & Street,Andrew, 2006. "Measuring Efficiency in Health Care," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521851442.
    4. Anders Toft & Trond Bjørndal, 1997. "The Structure of Production in the Norwegian Fish-Processing Industry: An Empirical Multi-Output Cost Analysis Using a Hybrid Translog Functional Form," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 247-267, August.
    5. Daniel Urban & Michael Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker & David Lobell, 2012. "Projected temperature changes indicate significant increase in interannual variability of U.S. maize yields," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 525-533, May.
    6. Anthony C. Fisher & W. Michael Hanemann & Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2012. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3749-3760, December.
    7. V. Eldon Ball, 1985. "Output, Input, and Productivity Measurement in U.S. Agriculture 1948–79," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(3), pages 475-486.
    8. Tim J. Coelli & D. S. Prasada Rao, 2005. "Total factor productivity growth in agriculture: a Malmquist index analysis of 93 countries, 1980–2000," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 32(s1), pages 115-134, January.
    9. Adam J. Liska & Haishun Yang & Maribeth Milner & Steve Goddard & Humberto Blanco-Canqui & Matthew P. Pelton & Xiao X. Fang & Haitao Zhu & Andrew E. Suyker, 2014. "Biofuels from crop residue can reduce soil carbon and increase CO2 emissions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(5), pages 398-401, May.
    10. Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker & Jonathan Eyer, 2013. "Agronomic Weather Measures in Econometric Models of Crop Yield with Implications for Climate Change," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(2), pages 236-243.
    11. Emmanuel Flachaire, 2005. "More Efficient Tests Robust to Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 219-241.
    12. J. C. Headley, 1968. "Estimating the Productivity of Agricultural Pesticides," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 50(1), pages 13-23.
    13. Zvi Griliches, 1963. "The Sources of Measured Productivity Growth: United States Agriculture, 1940-60," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(4), pages 331-331.
    14. Chambers,Robert G., 1988. "Applied Production Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521314275.
    15. Hayami, Yujiro & Ruttan, Vernon W, 1970. "Agricultural Productivity Differences Among Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(5), pages 895-911, December.
    16. Subhash C. Ray, 1982. "A Translog Cost Function Analysis of U.S. Agriculture, 1939–77," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 64(3), pages 490-498.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Trindade, Federico J. & Fulginiti, Lilyan E. & Perrin, Richard K., 2020. "A half century of yield growth along the forty-first parallel of the Great Plains: factor intensification, irrigation, weather, and technical change," Staff Papers 305568, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    2. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2013. "No Mangoes in the Tundra: Spatial Heterogeneity in Agricultural Productivity Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(6), pages 914-939, December.
    3. Trindade, Federico J., 2015. "U.S. Crop Yields Redux: Weather Effects versus Human Inputs," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205271, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Wang, Xiaoxi & Dietrich, Jan P. & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Biewald, Anne & Stevanović, Miodrag & Bodirsky, Benjamin L. & Brümmer, Bernhard & Popp, Alexander, 2020. "Beyond land-use intensity: Assessing future global crop productivity growth under different socioeconomic pathways," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    5. Edoardo Baldoni & Roberto Esposti, 2021. "Agricultural Productivity in Space: an Econometric Assessment Based on Farm‐Level Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(4), pages 1525-1544, August.
    6. Sheng, Yu & Xu, Xinpeng, 2019. "The productivity impact of climate change: Evidence from Australia's Millennium drought," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 182-191.
    7. Coleman, Jane A. & Shaik, Saleem, 2009. "Time-Varying Estimation of Crop Insurance Program in Altering North Dakota Farm Economic Structure," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49516, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Renwick, Alan W. & Revoredo-Giha, Cesar & Reader, Mark A., 2005. "Uk Sugar Beet Farm Productivity Under Different Reform Scenarios: A Farm Level Analysis," Environmental Economy and Policy Research Discussion Papers 31936, University of Cambridge, Department of Land Economy.
    9. Tim J. Coelli & D. S. Prasada Rao, 2005. "Total factor productivity growth in agriculture: a Malmquist index analysis of 93 countries, 1980–2000," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 32(s1), pages 115-134, January.
    10. Scheierling, Susanne M. & Treguer, David O. & Booker, James F. & Decker, Elisabeth, 2014. "How to assess agricultural water productivity ? looking for water in the agricultural productivity and efficiency literature," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6982, The World Bank.
    11. Francisco Costa & Fabien Forge & Jason Garred & João Paulo Pessoa, 2023. "The Impact of Climate Change on Risk and Return in Indian Agriculture," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 85(1), pages 1-27, May.
    12. Meyer, Kevin & Keiser, David A., 2016. "Adapting to Climate Change Through Tile Drainage: A Structural Ricardian Analysis," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235932, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Francisco Costa & Fabien Forge & Jason Garred & João Paulo Pessoa, 2020. "Climate Change and the Distribution of Agricultural Output," Working Papers 2003E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    14. Danilo Đokić & Bojan Matkovski & Marija Jeremić & Ivan Đurić, 2022. "Land Productivity and Agri-Environmental Indicators: A Case Study of Western Balkans," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-13, December.
    15. Yun, Seong Do & Gramig, Benjamin M & Delgado, Michael S. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M., 2015. "Does Spatial Correlation Matter in Econometric Models of Crop Yield Response and Weather?," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205465, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Robert G. Chambers & Erik Lichtenberg, 1994. "Simple Econometrics of Pesticide Productivity," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(3), pages 407-417.
    17. Tao Wu & Yuelong Wang, 2015. "Did the Establishment of Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Zone Increase Agricultural Labor Productivity in Jiangxi Province, China?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-11, December.
    18. Rodolfo Cermeño & Sirenia Vázquez, 2009. "Technological Backwardness in Agriculture: Is it Due to Lack of R&D, Human Capital, and Openness to International Trade?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 673-686, November.
    19. Lingran Yuan & Shurui Zhang & Shuo Wang & Zesen Qian & Binlei Gong, 2021. "World agricultural convergence," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 135-153, April.
    20. Seungki Lee & Yongjie Ji & GianCarlo Moschini, 2021. "Agricultural Innovation and Adaptation to Climate Change: Insights from Genetically Engineered Maize," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 21-wp616, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iaae18:277264. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.