IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iaae15/212474.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dynamic risk assessment model to the corn production system in Mato Grosso, Brasil

Author

Listed:
  • Moraes, Marcelo
  • Chen, Rafael
  • Carauta, Katiucia
  • Yonenaga, William

Abstract

The agricultural sector suffers the influence of various risk factors. Although there is no profit without risk, it is very important to know the risks faced and devise strategies to minimize them. In this sense, this paper proposes a new approach for risk assessment, adapting the system dynamic methodology to the study of risk in agricultural systems. From this new approach, it was possible to identify new risk factors for the maize production system in Mato Grosso, Brazil. Several simulations were carried out, in order to detect the impact of each identified variable in the profitability of the system. The most important factors influencing profitability were those that directly affect the revenues of the system, such as the exchange rate, sale price, and yield.

Suggested Citation

  • Moraes, Marcelo & Chen, Rafael & Carauta, Katiucia & Yonenaga, William, 2015. "Dynamic risk assessment model to the corn production system in Mato Grosso, Brasil," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212474, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae15:212474
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.212474
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/212474/files/Moraes-Dynamic%20risk%20assessment%20model%20to%20the%20corn%20production%20system-579.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.212474?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Parsons, David & Nicholson, Charles F. & Blake, Robert W. & Ketterings, Quirine M. & Ramírez-Aviles, Luis & Fox, Danny G. & Tedeschi, Luis O. & Cherney, Jerome H., 2011. "Development and evaluation of an integrated simulation model for assessing smallholder crop-livestock production in Yucatán, Mexico," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 1-12, January.
    2. Barry K. Goodwin & Randy Schnepf, 2000. "Determinants of endogenous price risk in corn and wheat futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(8), pages 753-774, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlotta Penone & Samuele Trestini, 2022. "Testing for asymmetric cointegration of Italian agricultural commodities prices: Evidence from the futures-spot market relationship," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 68(2), pages 50-58.
    2. Nanying Wang & Jack E. Houston, 2016. "The Co-Movement between Non-GM and GM Soybean Prices in China: Evidence from Dalian Futures Market (2004-2014)," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 37-47, November.
    3. Karali, Berna & Ramirez, Octavio A., 2014. "Macro determinants of volatility and volatility spillover in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 413-421.
    4. Pacín, Fernando & Oesterheld, Martín, 2014. "In-farm diversity stabilizes return on capital in Argentine agro-ecosystems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 51-59.
    5. Andrew McKenzie & Matthew Holt, 2002. "Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1519-1532.
    6. McDonald, C.K. & MacLeod, N.D. & Lisson, S. & Corfield, J.P., 2019. "The Integrated Analysis Tool (IAT) – A model for the evaluation of crop-livestock and socio-economic interventions in smallholder farming systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    7. Aaron Smith, 2005. "Partially overlapping time series: a new model for volatility dynamics in commodity futures," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 405-422, March.
    8. Cagatay Basarir & Mehmet Fatih Bayramoglu, 2018. "Global Macroeconomic Determinants of the Domestic Commodity Derivatives," Contributions to Economics, in: Hasan Dincer & Ümit Hacioglu & Serhat Yüksel (ed.), Global Approaches in Financial Economics, Banking, and Finance, chapter 0, pages 331-349, Springer.
    9. Chen, Shichao & Parsons, David & Du, Taisheng & Kumar, Uttam & Wang, Sufen, 2021. "Simulation of yield and water balance using WHCNS and APSIM combined with geostatistics across a heterogeneous field," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    10. Jason Loughrey & Fiona Thorne & Thia Hennessy, 2016. "A Microsimulation Model for Risk in Irish Tillage Farming," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 9(2), pages 41-76.
    11. Ahmad Romadhoni Surya Putra, R. & Liu, Zhen & Lund, Mogens, 2017. "The impact of biogas technology adoption for farm households – Empirical evidence from mixed crop and livestock farming systems in Indonesia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1371-1378.
    12. Marín-González, Omar & Parsons, David & Arnes-Prieto, Esperanza & Díaz-Ambrona, Carlos G.H., 2018. "Building and evaluation of a dynamic model for assessing impact of smallholder endowments on food security in agricultural systems in highland areas of central America (SASHACA)," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 152-164.
    13. Olivia Florence Godber & Boughaleb Farahat Laroussi & Mouad Chentouf & Richard Wall, 2016. "Intensification of Mediterranean Goat Production Systems: A Case Study in Northern Morocco," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-26, April.
    14. Aliaga Lordemann, Javier & Mora-García, Claudio & Mulder, Nanno, 2021. "Speculation and price volatility in the coffee market," Documentos de Proyectos 46923, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    15. Kelechukwu G. Odoemena & Jeffrey P. Walters & Holger Maximilian Kleemann, 2020. "A System Dynamics Model of Supply-Side Issues Influencing Beef Consumption in Nigeria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-22, April.
    16. Sania Wadud & Robert D. Durand & Marc Gronwald, 2021. "Connectedness between the Crude Oil Futures and Equity Markets during the Pre- and Post-Financialisation Eras," CESifo Working Paper Series 9202, CESifo.
    17. Paul, B.K. & Epper, C.A. & Tschopp, D.J. & Long, C.T.M. & Tungani, V. & Burra, D. & Hok, L. & Phengsavanh, P. & Douxchamps, S., 2022. "Crop-livestock integration provides opportunities to mitigate environmental trade-offs in transitioning smallholder agricultural systems of the Greater Mekong Subregion," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    18. Sarker, Rakhal & Oyewumi, Olubukola Ayodeji, 2015. "Trade Policy Change And Price Volatility Spill-Over In A Customs Union: A Case Study Of Lamb Trade Between Namibia And South Africa," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(1), pages 1-14, January.
    19. Wang, Nanying & Houston, Jack E., 2015. "The Co-movement between Non-GM and GM Soybean Price in China: Evidence from China Futures Market," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211914, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iaae15:212474. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.