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The Russian ban on EU agricultural imports: A bilateral extension of AGLINK-COSIMO

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  • Dillen, Koen

Abstract

Type On August 6 2014 the Russian Federation introduced a one year ban on imports into the Russian Federation of agricultural products, raw materials and food, originating from selected countries including the EU. This paper provides an initial assessment of the potential impact of this import ban on EU agricultural markets. Furthermore it provides an insight in the shifting trade patterns and price effects at EU, Russian and world level. We use the Aglink-Cosimo model, a recursive partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector. Its gross trade specification is problematic for the study of bilateral trade. Therefore the model was extended with an ad hoc incorporation of bilateral trade. The initial results show that the impact for the EU remains rather limited as the EU can divert a considerable part of its trade with Russia to other markets. The impact on the Russian market is however expected to be considerable as imports can't be easily substituted and domestic production has problems to expand productions significantly within the timeframe of the ban.

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  • Dillen, Koen, 2015. "The Russian ban on EU agricultural imports: A bilateral extension of AGLINK-COSIMO," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211574, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae15:211574
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.211574
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    Cited by:

    1. Banse, Martin & Duric, Ivan & Götz, Linde & Laquai, Verena, 2019. "From the Russian food import ban to free trade from Lisbon to Vladivostok - will farmers benefit?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 12(4), pages 20-31.
    2. Meyers, William H. & Schroeder, Kateryna G., 2016. "Commodity markets and trade to 2025: What is driving these changes?," 155th Seminar, September 19-21, 2016, Kiev, Ukraine 245172, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Duric, I. & Glauben, T. & Zaric, V., 2018. "Impact of the Russian agricultural import ban on the Serbian pork exports and domestic price development along the pork value chain," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277201, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Daria Loginova & Judith Irek, 2022. "Russian meat price transmission and policy interventions in 2014," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-28, December.

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    Agricultural Finance; International Relations/Trade;

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