IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/feemth/285026.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determinants of the Public Debt and the Role of the Natural Resources: a Cross-Country Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Sadik-Zada, Elkhan Richard
  • Gatto, Andrea

Abstract

This paper investigates the major drivers of the public debt growth in 184 countries. The underlying cross-country survey is conducted on the basis of the improved compilation of datasets on the central government debt for 2013. The study finds that oil abundance, economic growth rate, the share of mineral rent in the total revenue, interest rate payments for foreign borrowings, and being a developing country have statistically significant impact on the growth of the public debt. In contrast, defense spending, unemployment rate, and inflation rate do not have a statistically significant positive impact on the public debt rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Sadik-Zada, Elkhan Richard & Gatto, Andrea, 2019. "Determinants of the Public Debt and the Role of the Natural Resources: a Cross-Country Analysis," ETA: Economic Theory and Applications 285026, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemth:285026
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.285026
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/285026/files/NDL2019-004.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.285026?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "Do sovereign wealth funds dampen the negative effects of commodity price volatility?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 18-27.
    2. Sachs, J-D & Warner, A-M, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," Papers 517a, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
    3. Dany Jaimovich & Ugo Panizza, 2010. "Public debt around the world: a new data set of central government debt," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 19-24, January.
    4. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    5. Bender, Dieter & Löwenstein, Wilhelm, 2014. "Immiserizing Capital Flows to Developing Countries," IEE Working Papers 201, Ruhr University Bochum, Institute of Development Research and Development Policy (IEE).
    6. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    7. Giovanna Bua & Juan Pradelli & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "Domestic public debt in low-income countries: trends and structure," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 85, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    8. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Marshall, Jorge, 1991. "Macroeconomics of public sector deficits : the case of Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 696, The World Bank.
    9. Ms. Elva Bova & Nathalie Carcenac & Ms. Martine Guerguil, 2014. "Fiscal Rules and the Procyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the Developing World," IMF Working Papers 2014/122, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria & Enrique Mendoza & Franz Hamann, 2016. "Commodity Prices and Sovereign Default: A New Perspective on The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," 2016 Meeting Papers 806, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. J. Paul Dunne a,† & Sam Perlo-Freeman ‡ & Aylin Soydan §, 2004. "Military expenditure and debt in South America," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 173-187, April.
    12. Neck, Reinhard & Getzner, Michael, 2001. "Politico-Economic Determinants of Public Debt Growth: A Case Study for Austria," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 109(3-4), pages 243-268, December.
    13. Easterly, William, 1991. "The macroeconomics of the public sector deficit : the case of Colombia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 626, The World Bank.
    14. Easterly, William & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1991. "The macroeconomics of public sector deficits : a synthesis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 775, The World Bank.
    15. Michael Overton & Julius A. Nukpezah & Orkhan Ismayilov, 2017. "Prepayments, late payments, and sales tax revenue volatility in Texas cities," Public Money & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 469-476, November.
    16. Selami Sezgin, 2004. "An empirical note on external debt and defence expenditures in Turkey," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 199-203, April.
    17. Morande, Felipe & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1991. "Macroeconomics of public sector deficits : the case of Zimbabwe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 688, The World Bank.
    18. Melina, Giovanni & Yang, Shu-Chun S. & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2016. "Debt sustainability, public investment, and natural resources in developing countries: The DIGNAR model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 630-649.
    19. Andrea F. Presbitero, 2012. "Domestic debt in Low-Income Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1099-1112.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hodabalo Bataka, 2023. "Economic globalization and public debt in Sub‐Saharan Africa," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1756-1771, April.
    2. Bayale, Nimonka & Tchagnao, Abdou-Fataou & Chavula, Hopestone Kayiska, 2020. "More elections, more burden? On the relationship between elections and public debt in Africa," MPRA Paper 101744, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Wang, Wencheng & Ning, Zinan & Shu, Yang & Riti, Joshua Sunday & Riti, Miriam-Kamah J., 2023. "Natural resource rents and public debts nexus in African resource-rich and most indebted nations: Issues with aggregation bias," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Sadik-Zada, Elkhan Richard & Gatto, Andrea, 2021. "The puzzle of greenhouse gas footprints of oil abundance," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Mohd Shahidan Shaari & Faiz Masnan & Mohd Juraij Abd Rani & Zaharah Zainal Abidin & Abdul Rahim Ridzuan & Norreha Othman, 2023. "The Grim Cost of Economic Growth and Environmental Degradation: A Comprehensive Panel ARDL Study of Public Debt in the ASEAN-5 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-15, July.
    6. Di Johnson & John Rodwell & Thomas Hendry, 2021. "Analyzing the Impacts of Financial Services Regulation to Make the Case That Buy-Now-Pay-Later Regulation Is Failing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-20, February.
    7. Elkhan Richard Sadik-Zada, 2020. "Distributional Bargaining and the Speed of Structural Change in the Petroleum Exporting Labor Surplus Economies," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(1), pages 51-98, January.
    8. Agnieszka Kozera & Aldona Standar & Łukasz Satoła, 2020. "Managing Rural Areas in the Context of the Growing Debt of Polish Local Government Units," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-25, August.
    9. Ampofo, Gideon Minua Kwaku & Jinhua, Cheng & Bosah, Philip Chukwunonso & Ayimadu, Edwin Twum & Senadzo, Patrick, 2021. "Nexus between total natural resource rents and public debt in resource-rich countries:A panel data analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Yacouba COULIBALY & Alexandru MINEA & Patrick VILLIEU, 2022. "How Do Natural Resource – Backed Loans Affect the Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Countries? Empirical Evidence," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2937, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    11. Achua, Joseph Kwaghkor & Yusuf, Mariam & Wakdok, Samuel Stephen, 2022. "Nonlinear public debt and resource rent nexus in highly indebted resource-rich sub-Saharan economies: Evidence from Nigeria," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Busato, Francesco & Varlese, Monica & Ulloa Severino, Claudia, 2022. "Public debt heterogeneity at country level: an empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 113812, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. W. Robert J. Alexander, 2013. "The Defence-Debt Nexus: Evidence From The High-Income Members Of Nato," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 133-145, April.
    3. Aygun Garayeva & Gulzar Tahirova, 2017. "Government Spending Effectiveness and the Quality of Fiscal Institutions," Business & Management Compass, University of Economics Varna, issue 2, pages 128-143.
    4. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2008. "Does Military Expenditure Determine Fiji'S Exploding Debt Levels?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 77-87.
    5. Ampofo, Gideon Minua Kwaku & Jinhua, Cheng & Bosah, Philip Chukwunonso & Ayimadu, Edwin Twum & Senadzo, Patrick, 2021. "Nexus between total natural resource rents and public debt in resource-rich countries:A panel data analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Soledad Arellano & Felipe Larraín, 1996. "Tipo de Cambio Real y Gasto Público: Un Modelo Econométrico para Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 33(98), pages 47-76.
    7. Gitana Dudzevičiūtė & Vida Česnuitytė & Dalia Prakapienė, 2021. "Defence Expenditure–Government Debt Nexus in the Context of Sustainability in Selected Small European Union Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-18, June.
    8. Reyes-Loya, Manuel Lorenzo & Blanco, Lorenzo, 2008. "Measuring the importance of oil-related revenues in total fiscal income for Mexico," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2552-2568, September.
    9. Nouf Alsharif & Sambit Bhattacharyya, 2022. "Oil Discovery, Boom-Bust Cycle and Manufacturing Slowdown: Evidence from a Large Industry Level Dataset," Working Paper Series 0222, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    10. Mubariz Mammadli & Elkhan Richard Sadik-Zada & Andrea Gatto & Rana Huseynova, 2021. "What Drives Public Debt Growth? A Focus on Natural Resources, Sustainability and Development," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 614-621.
    11. Montiel, Peter J., 1993. "Fiscal aspects of developing countrydebt problems and debt and debt-service reduction operations : a conceptual framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1073, The World Bank.
    12. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2020. "The Impact of Domestic and Foreign Public Debt on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Zimbabwe," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(1), pages 77-106.
    13. Vavouras, Ioannis S., 1999. "Public Sector Deficits: Their Economic and Policy Determinants in the Case of Greece," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 89-100, January.
    14. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Does Public Debt Impact Economic Growth in Zambia? An Ardl-Bounds Testing Approach," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 69(4), pages 53-73, October-D.
    15. de la Torre, Augusto & Didier, Tatiana & Pinat, Magali, 2014. "Can Latin America tap the globalization upside ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6837, The World Bank.
    16. Muhammad Shahbaz & Muhammad shahbaz Shabbir & Muhammad sabihuddin Butt, 2016. "Does Military Spending Explode External Debt in Pakistan?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 718-741, September.
    17. Shigeto Kitano & Kenya Takaku, 2023. "Effect of sovereign wealth funds in commodity‐exporting economies when commodity prices affect interest spreads," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 37(3), pages 267-292, September.
    18. Moessinger, Marc-Daniel, 2012. "Do personal characteristics of finance ministers affect the development of public debt?," ZEW Discussion Papers 12-068, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    19. Wang, Wencheng & Ning, Zinan & Shu, Yang & Riti, Joshua Sunday & Riti, Miriam-Kamah J., 2023. "Natural resource rents and public debts nexus in African resource-rich and most indebted nations: Issues with aggregation bias," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    20. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "Relative impact of domestic and foreign public debt on economic growth in South Africa," Working Papers 25664, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:feemth:285026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feemmit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.