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A Risk Assessment Model on Pine Wood Nematode in the EU

Author

Listed:
  • Soliman, T.
  • Hengeveld, G.M.
  • Robinet, C.
  • Mourits, Monique
  • van der Werf, Wopke
  • Oude Lansink, Alfons G.J.M.

Abstract

Pine wood nematode, B. xylophilus poses a serious threat for the European forest industry. This study applies a quantitative risk assessment to analyze the risk of pine wood nematode in the EU, by estimating the reduction expected within forestry stock available for wood supply and its downstream roundwood market. Spatial analysis is used to join information on climate suitability, host distribution, pest spread and value of assets. Economic impacts are presented spatially on a NUTS-2 scale based on partial budgeting technique and for the EU as a whole based on partial equilibrium modeling. Results highlight the Southern regions of Europe as high risk areas with a total impact on available forestry stock of 19,000 M € after 20 years of an outbreak and no regulatory control measures. Welfare analysis of the roundwood market, in which its production represents 2,5% of forestry stock, demonstrates the ability of the producers to pass most of the negative impact to the consumers by charging higher prices. Reduction in social welfare estimated at 2,043 M €, where consumer surplus decreased by 2,622 M € and net producer surplus, affected and non-affected producers, increased by 579 M €.

Suggested Citation

  • Soliman, T. & Hengeveld, G.M. & Robinet, C. & Mourits, Monique & van der Werf, Wopke & Oude Lansink, Alfons G.J.M., 2011. "A Risk Assessment Model on Pine Wood Nematode in the EU," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 116010, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaae11:116010
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.116010
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ilya V. Surkov & Alfons G.J.M. Oude Lansink & Wopke van der Werf, 2009. "The optimal amount and allocation of sampling effort for plant health inspection," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 36(3), pages 295-320, September.
    2. Christelle Robinet & Alain Roques & Hongyang Pan & Guofei Fang & Jianren Ye & Yanzhuo Zhang & Jianghua Sun, 2009. "Role of Human-Mediated Dispersal in the Spread of the Pinewood Nematode in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(2), pages 1-10, February.
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