A Risk Assessment Model on Pine Wood Nematode in the EU
AbstractPine wood nematode, B. xylophilus poses a serious threat for the European forest industry. This study applies a quantitative risk assessment to analyze the risk of pine wood nematode in the EU, by estimating the reduction expected within forestry stock available for wood supply and its downstream roundwood market. Spatial analysis is used to join information on climate suitability, host distribution, pest spread and value of assets. Economic impacts are presented spatially on a NUTS-2 scale based on partial budgeting technique and for the EU as a whole based on partial equilibrium modeling. Results highlight the Southern regions of Europe as high risk areas with a total impact on available forestry stock of 19,000 M € after 20 years of an outbreak and no regulatory control measures. Welfare analysis of the roundwood market, in which its production represents 2,5% of forestry stock, demonstrates the ability of the producers to pass most of the negative impact to the consumers by charging higher prices. Reduction in social welfare estimated at 2,043 M €, where consumer surplus decreased by 2,622 M € and net producer surplus, affected and non-affected producers, increased by 579 M €.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland with number 116010.
Date of creation: 02 Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Risk assessment; pine wood nematode; economic analysis; EU; Crop Production/Industries; Risk and Uncertainty;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-10-15 (All new papers)
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- Ilya V. Surkov & Alfons G.J.M. Oude Lansink & Wopke van der Werf, 2009. "The optimal amount and allocation of sampling effort for plant health inspection," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 295-320, September.
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