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Modelling yield risk measures of major crop plants

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  • Kobus, Pawel
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    Abstract

    The paper deals with the problem of modelling yield risk measures for major crop plants in Poland. Hence, in some cases the gamma distribution offers a better fit to the data than normal distribution, and in addition to linear models, generalized linear models were also used. The research was based on data from Polish FADN, with sample sizes ranging from 416 up to 2300, depending on the crop plant. It was found that models based on the farm level data, can explain on average 20% of variation coefficient unevenness. The most important variables were average yield, type of farming, arable area and land quality. The elimination of the average yield from the models reduced the average determination coefficient to about 9%.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by European Association of Agricultural Economists in its series 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland with number 122535.

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    Date of creation: 23 Feb 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa123:122535

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    Related research

    Keywords: production risk; risk measures; yield distribution; Risk and Uncertainty; Q10; C46;

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    1. Marra, Michele C. & Schurle, Bryan W., 1994. "Kansas Wheat Yield Risk Measures And Aggregation: A Meta- Analysis Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(01), July.
    2. Monier-Dilhan, Sylvette & Ossard, Herve, 1998. "Producers' Loss Due to Asymmetric Information: An Application to a Specific Case," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 155-69.
    3. Monier-Dilhan & Ossard, 1998. "Producers' loss due to asymmetric information : an application to a specific case," Working Papers 152054, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, France.
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