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The Next-11 and the BRICs: Are They the Future Markets for Agrifood Trade?

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Author Info

  • Cairns, Alexander P.
  • Meilke, Karl D.

Abstract

In the mid-2000’s, Goldman Sachs identified two groups of emerging economies known as the BRICs and the Next-11. Primarily selected on the basis of having large populations, these countries were heralded as the growth centres of the future with the potential to stimulate increased demand for a wide range of commodities, including food. This study uses an import demand model to estimate how income influences per capita expenditure on agrifood imports in 63 countries. The findings suggest that as groups the BRICs and N-11 do not di↵er from other low, middle, or high income countries with respect to their import behaviour. However, disaggregation of the two groups reveals significantly larger expenditure elasticities for China, India, South Korea and Vietnam. A forecasting exercise reveals the capacity of income and population growth in China, India, Indonesia, Russia, South Korea and Vietnam to substantially increase their expenditure on imported agrifood products.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network in its series Trade Policy Briefs with number 145971.

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Date of creation: Dec 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ags:catptp:145971

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Related research

Keywords: Next-11 BRIC trade agriculture; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; International Development; International Relations/Trade;

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References

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  1. Jason H. Grant & Dayton M. Lambert, 2008. "Do Regional Trade Agreements Increase Members' Agricultural Trade?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(3), pages 765-782.
  2. Leung, Siu Fai & Yu, Shihti, 1996. "On the choice between sample selection and two-part models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 197-229.
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  5. David Madden, 2006. "Sample Selection Versus Two-Part Models Revisited: the Case of Female Smoking and Drinking," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 06/12, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
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  7. Puhani, Patrick A, 2000. " The Heckman Correction for Sample Selection and Its Critique," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 53-68, February.
  8. Zahoor Ul Haq & Karl Meilke & John Cranfield, 2013. "Selection bias in a gravity model of agrifood trade," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 40(2), pages 331-360, March.
  9. Zahoor Haq & Karl Meilke, 2010. "Do the BRICs and Emerging Markets Differ in their Agrifood Imports?," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 1-14.
  10. Hallak, Juan Carlos, 2006. "Product quality and the direction of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 238-265, January.
  11. Cairns, Alexander P. & Meilke, Karl D., 2012. "The Next-11 and the BRICs: Are They the Future Markets for Agrifood Trade?," Working Papers 122737, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
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Cited by:
  1. Cairns, Alexander P. & Meilke, Karl D., 2012. "The Next-11 and the BRICs: Are They the Future Markets for Agrifood Trade?," Working Papers 122737, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.

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