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The Market Timing Value of Outlook Price Forecasts

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  • Irwin, Scott H.
  • Gerlow, Mary E.
  • Liu, Te-Ru

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the market timing value of outlook price forecasts. One-, two-, and three-quarter ahead hog and cattle price forecasts from the four outlook programs were examined. Results of Merton market timing tests indicate that the outlook programs generally produce valuable hog price forecasts. However, the strength of the market timing value tended to diminish as the forecast horizon increased. The performance of the outlook programs in forecasting cattle prices was not as impressive.

Suggested Citation

  • Irwin, Scott H. & Gerlow, Mary E. & Liu, Te-Ru, 1991. "The Market Timing Value of Outlook Price Forecasts," 1991 Annual Meeting, August 4-7, Manhattan, Kansas 271261, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea91:271261
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.271261
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis; Marketing;

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