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Macroeconomic Risks and Characteristic-Based Factor Models

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  • Aretz, Kevin
  • Bartram, Söhnke M.
  • Pope, Peter F.

Abstract

We show that book-to-market, size, and momentum capture cross-sectional variation in exposures to a broad set of macroeconomic factors identified in the prior literature as potentially important for pricing equities. The factors considered include innovations in economic growth expectations, inflation, the aggregate survival probability, the term structure of interest rates, and the exchange rate. Factor mimicking portfolios constructed on the basis of book-to-market, size, and momentum therefore serve as proxy composite macroeconomic risk factors. Conditional and unconditional cross-sectional asset pricing tests indicate that most of the macroeconomic factors are priced. The performance of an asset pricing model based on the macroeconomic factors is comparable to the performance of the Fama and French (1992, 1993) model. However, the momentum factor is found to contain incremental information for asset pricing.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 47344.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Banking and Finance 6.34(2010): pp. 1383-1399
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47344

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Keywords: Fama and French model; Carhart model; asset pricing; book-to-market; size; momentum; macroeconomic pricing factors;

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Cited by:
  1. Davison, Freddy & Marsden, Alastair & Veeraraghavan, Madhu, 2008. "Do zero-cost portfolios have the ability to predict economic growth? Evidence from Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 1012-1028, December.
  2. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Anwar, Sajid, 2014. "Pricing of the currency risk in the Canadian equity market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 173-194.
  3. Lucas Bretschger & Filippo Lechthaler, 2012. "Common Risk Factors and the Macroeconomy: New Evidence from the Japanese Stock Market," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 12/160, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
  4. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Bodnar, Gordon M., 2012. "Crossing the lines: The conditional relation between exchange rate exposure and stock returns in emerging and developed markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 766-792.
  5. ANNAERT, Jan & DE CEUSTER, Marc & VERSTEGEN, Kurt, 2012. "Are extreme returns priced in the stock market? European evidence," Working Papers 2012018, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
  6. Aretz, Kevin & Shackleton, Mark B., 2011. "Omitted debt risk, financial distress and the cross-section of expected equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1213-1227, May.
  7. Gu, Li & Huang, Dayong, 2010. "Sales order backlogs and momentum profits," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1564-1575, July.
  8. Xiao, Yuchao & Faff, Robert & Gharghori, Philip & Min, Byoung-Kyu, 2013. "Pricing innovations in consumption growth: A re-evaluation of the recursive utility model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4465-4475.
  9. Min, Byoung-Kyu & Kim, Tong Suk, 2012. "Are good-news firms riskier than bad-news firms?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1528-1535.
  10. Du, Ding, 2014. "Persistent exchange-rate movements and stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 36-53.
  11. Paula Hill & Robert Faff, 2010. "The Market Impact of Relative Agency Activity in the Sovereign Ratings Market," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(9-10), pages 1309-1347, November/.
  12. Florackis, Chris & Gregoriou, Andros & Kostakis, Alexandros, 2011. "Trading frequency and asset pricing on the London Stock Exchange: Evidence from a new price impact ratio," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3335-3350.
  13. Kim, Dongcheol & Kim, Tong Suk & Min, Byoung-Kyu, 2011. "Future labor income growth and the cross-section of equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 67-81, January.
  14. Chou, Pin-Huang & Ho, Po-Hsin & Ko, Kuan-Cheng, 2012. "Do industries matter in explaining stock returns and asset-pricing anomalies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 355-370.

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