Determinants of Household Poverty Dynamics in Rural Regions of the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa
AbstractPoverty has always been studied in a world of certainty. However, if the aim of studying poverty is not only improving the well-being of households who are currently poor, but also preventing people from becoming poor in the future, a new forward looking perspective must be adopted. For thinking about appropriate forward-looking anti-poverty interventions (i.e. interventions that aim to prevent or reduce future poverty rather than alleviate current poverty), the critical need then is to go beyond a cataloging of who is currently poor and who is not, to an assessment of households’ vulnerability to poverty. This study analyses a panel dataset on a representative sample of 150 rural households interviewed in 2007 and 2008 in the Amathole District Municipality of the Eastern Cape Province to empirical assess the dynamics of poverty and estimate the determinants of households’ vulnerability to poverty. The result of the study indicates that the number of vulnerable households is significantly larger than for the currently poor households; the vulnerability index was found to be 0,62 compared to 0,56 headcount index in 2008. This implies that while 56 percent of the sampled households are poor (ex post) in 2008, 62 percent are vulnerable to becoming poor (ex ante) in future. The result of the Probit model shows that the age, level of education and occupation of the household head, dependency ratio, exposure to idiosyncratic risks and access to credit are statistically significant in explaining a households’ vulnerability to poverty.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE) & Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA) in its series 2010 AAAE Third Conference/AEASA 48th Conference, September 19-23, 2010, Cape Town, South Africa with number 97078.
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: c/o FORMAT, 5th Floor, Muthaiga Mini Market, Limuru Road, P.O. Box 79 - 00621 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya
Phone: 254 20 6752866
Web page: http://www.aaae-africa.org
More information through EDIRC
Poverty; vulnerability; poverty dynamics; risks; rural households; Food Security and Poverty;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bob Baulch & John Hoddinott, 2000. "Economic mobility and poverty dynamics in developing countries," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 1-24.
- Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-66, May.
- Adams, Richard H. Jr. & He, Jane J., 1995. "Sources of income inequality and poverty in rural Pakistan:," Research reports 102, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Moser, Caroline O. N., 1998. "The asset vulnerability framework: Reassessing urban poverty reduction strategies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-19, January.
- Sen, Binayak, 2003. "Drivers of Escape and Descent: Changing Household Fortunes in Rural Bangladesh," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 513-534, March.
- Robert Holzmann & Steen Jorgensen, 2000.
"Social risk management : a new conceptual framework for social protection and beyond,"
Social Protection Discussion Papers
21314, The World Bank.
- Robert Holzmann & Steen Jørgensen, 2001. "Social Risk Management: A New Conceptual Framework for Social Protection, and Beyond," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 529-556, August.
- Binswanger, Hans & Khandker, Shahidur, 1992. "The impact of formal finance on the rural economy of India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 949, The World Bank.
- McCulloch, Neil & Calandrino, Michele, 2003. "Vulnerability and Chronic Poverty in Rural Sichuan," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 611-628, March.
- Aliber, Michael, 2003. "Chronic Poverty in South Africa: Incidence, Causes and Policies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 473-490, March.
- Hentschel, J. & Lanjouw, P., 1996. "Constructing an Indicator of Consumption for the Analysis of Poverty. Principles and Illustrations with Reference to Ecuador," Papers 127, World Bank - Living Standards Measurement.
- Skoufias, Emmanuel & Quisumbing, Agnes R., 2003.
"Consumption insurance and vulnerability to poverty,"
155, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Skoufias, Emmanuel & Quisumbing, Agnes R., 2003. "Consumption insurance and vulnerability to poverty," FCND discussion papers 155, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Rosenzweig, Mark R & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1993.
"Credit Market Constraints, Consumption Smoothing, and the Accumulation of Durable Production Assets in Low-Income Countries: Investment in Bullocks in India,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 223-44, April.
- Rosenzweig, Mark R. & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 1989. "Credit Market Constraints, Consumption Smoothing and the Accumulation of Durable Production Assets in Low-Income Countries: Investments in Bullocks in India," Bulletins 7487, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center.
- Luc J. Christiaensen & Kalanidhi Subbarao, 2005.
"Towards an Understanding of Household Vulnerability in Rural Kenya,"
Journal of African Economies,
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 14(4), pages 520-558, December.
- Christiaensen, Luc. J. & Subbarao, Kalanidhi, 2004. "Toward an understanding of household vulnerability in rural Kenya," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3326, The World Bank.
- Morduch, J., 1995.
"Poverty and Vulnerability,"
477, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
- Murray Leibbrandt & James Levinsohn & Justin McCrary, 2005.
"Incomes in South Africa since the fall of Apartheid,"
536, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Murray Leibbrandt & James Levinsohn & Justin McCrary, 2005. "Incomes in South Africa Since the Fall of Apartheid," NBER Working Papers 11384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Holzmann, Robert, 2001. "Risk and vulnerability : the forward looking role of social protection in a globalizing world," Social Protection Discussion Papers 23161, The World Bank.
- Ligon, Ethan & Schechter, Laura, 2002.
2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA
19899, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Paul Mosley & Robert Holzmann & Steen Jorgensen, 1999.
"Social protection as social risk management: conceptual underpinnings for the social protection sector strategy paper,"
Journal of International Development,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(7), pages 1005-1027.
- Holzmann, Robert & Jorgensen, Steen, 1999. "Social protection as social risk management : conceptual underpinnings for the social protection sector strategy paper," Social Protection Discussion Papers 20119, The World Bank.
- Ellis, Frank, 2000. "Rural Livelihoods and Diversity in Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296966.
- Murray Leibbrandt & Ingrid Woolard, 1999. "A comparison of poverty in South Africa's nine provinces," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 37-54.
- Jacoby, Hanan G & Skoufias, Emmanuel, 1997. "Risk, Financial Markets, and Human Capital in a Developing Country," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 311-35, July.
- Michael Kevane, 1996. "Agrarian Structure and Agricultural Practice: Typology and Application to Western Sudan," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(1), pages 236-245.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.