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Trade Policies and Poverty in Uganda: A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis

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  • Milton Ayoki

    (Institute of Policy Research and Analysis, Kampala)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on poverty in Uganda. Using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) framework and benchmark data from the 2002 household survey, three simulations are performed: removal of EAC tariffs, removal of non-EAC COMESA tariffs, and removal of all tariffs. Results indicate that poverty falls in all cases, but poverty falls much more in the case of a complete removal of tariffs on all imports (2.94%), compared with the case of removal of EAC tariffs (2.76%) or non-EAC COMESA tariffs (1.08%).

Suggested Citation

  • Milton Ayoki, 2013. "Trade Policies and Poverty in Uganda: A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," Working Papers 258, African Economic Research Consortium, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:aer:wpaper:258
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    1. Margaret Chitiga & Tonia Kandiero & Ramos Mabugu, 2005. "Computable General Equilibrium Micro-Simulation Analysis of the Impact of Trade Policies on Poverty in Zimbabwe," Working Papers MPIA 2005-01, PEP-MPIA.
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    7. Cororaton, Caesar B., 2003. "Analysis of Trade Reforms, Income Inequality and Poverty Using Microsimulation Approach: The Case of the Philippines," Discussion Papers DP 2003-09, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
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    9. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Luc Savard, 2005. "Impact Analysis of the Liberalization of Groundnut Production in Senegal: A Multi-household Computable General Equilibrium Model," Cahiers de recherche 05-12, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
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    12. Winters, L Alan, 2000. "Trade, Trade Policy and Poverty: What Are The Links?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2382, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ayoki, Milton & Obwona, Marios, 2005. "Illicit Trade in East Africa: What Do We Really Know?," MPRA Paper 80128, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2009.
    2. Ayoki, Milton, 2017. "Estimating the Revenue Impacts of Tax Harmonisation," MPRA Paper 83548, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Rodrigue Nobosse Tchoffo & Ibrahim Ngouhouo, 2020. "Cameroon’s Bilateral Economic Partnership Agreement: A Microsimulation Approach," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 67-84, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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