IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aep/anales/4477.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Defying Gravity: The Economic Effects of Social Distancing

Author

Listed:
  • Alfredo García
  • Christopher Hartwell
  • Martín Andrés Szybisz

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced changes in production and especially in human interaction, with "social distancing" a standard prescription for slowing transmission of the disease. This paper examines the economic effects of social distancing at the aggregate level, weighing both the benefits and costs to prolonged distancing. Specifically we fashion a model of economic recovery when the productive capacity of factors of production is restricted by social distancing, building a system of equations where output growth and social distance changes are interdependent. The model attempts to show the complex interactions between output levels and social distancing, developing cycle paths for both variables. Ultimately, however, defying gravity via prolonged social distancing shows that a lower growth path is inevitable as a result.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Alfredo García & Christopher Hartwell & Martín Andrés Szybisz, 2021. "Defying Gravity: The Economic Effects of Social Distancing," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4477, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
  • Handle: RePEc:aep:anales:4477
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://aaep.org.ar/works/works2021b/4477.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Durante, Ruben & Guiso, Luigi & Gulino, Giorgio, 2021. "Asocial capital: Civic culture and social distancing during COVID-19," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    2. Adam Sheridan & Asger Lau Andersen & Emil Toft Hansen & Niels Johannesen, 2020. "Social distancing laws cause only small losses of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scandinavia," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(34), pages 20468-20473, August.
    3. Simon Mongey & Laura Pilossoph & Alex Weinberg, 2020. "Which Workers Bear the Burden of Social Distancing Policies?," Working Papers 2020-51, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    4. Antoine Mandel & Vipin Veetil, 2020. "The Economic Cost of COVID Lockdowns: An Out-of-Equilibrium Analysis," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 431-451, October.
    5. Martin Bodenstein & Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Guerrieri, 2022. "Social distancing and supply disruptions in a pandemic," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(2), pages 681-721, May.
    6. Sumedha Gupta & Laura Montenovo & Thuy Nguyen & Felipe Lozano‐Rojas & Ian Schmutte & Kosali Simon & Bruce A. Weinberg & Coady Wing, 2023. "Effects of social distancing policy on labor market outcomes," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(1), pages 166-193, January.
    7. Zachary Barnett-Howell & Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, 2020. "The Benefits and Costs of Social Distancing in Rich and Poor Countries," Papers 2004.04867, arXiv.org.
    8. Jean-François Brun & Céline Carrère & Patrick Guillaumont & Jaime de Melo, 2015. "Has Distance Died? Evidence from a Panel Gravity Model," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Developing Countries in the World Economy, chapter 13, pages 299-320, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Farboodi, Maryam & Jarosch, Gregor & Shimer, Robert, 2021. "Internal and external effects of social distancing in a pandemic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    10. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem, 2020. "Economic impact of government interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: International evidence from financial markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    11. Gunay, Samet & Kurtulmuş, Bekir Emre, 2021. "COVID-19 social distancing and the US service sector: What do we learn?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    12. Walter Isard & Merton J. Peck, 1954. "Location Theory and International and Interregional Trade Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 68(1), pages 97-114.
    13. Daniel J McGrail & Jianli Dai & Kathleen M McAndrews & Raghu Kalluri, 2020. "Enacting national social distancing policies corresponds with dramatic reduction in COVID19 infection rates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-9, July.
    14. Michael Greenstone & Vishan Nigam, 2020. "Does Social Distancing Matter?," Working Papers 2020-26, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    15. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    16. Simon Mongey & Laura Pilossoph & Alexander Weinberg, 2021. "Which workers bear the burden of social distancing?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 509-526, September.
    17. Miklós Koren & Rita Pető, 2020. "Business disruptions from social distancing," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-14, September.
    18. Jean-Noël Barrot & Basile Grassi & Julien Sauvagnat, 2021. "Sectoral Effects of Social Distancing," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 277-281, May.
    19. Walter Isard, 1954. "Location Theory and Trade Theory: Short-Run Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 68(2), pages 305-320.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    2. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano, 2022. "From the lockdown to the new normal: individual mobility and local labor market characteristics following the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1517-1550, October.
    3. Caselli, Mauro & Fracasso, Andrea & Traverso, Silvio, 2021. "Robots and risk of COVID-19 workplace contagion: Evidence from Italy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    4. Burzyński, Michał & Machado, Joël & Aalto, Atte & Beine, Michel & Goncalves, Jorge & Haas, Tom & Kemp, Françoise & Magni, Stefano & Mombaerts, Laurent & Picard, Pierre & Proverbio, Daniele & Skupin, A, 2021. "COVID-19 crisis management in Luxembourg: Insights from an epidemionomic approach," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    5. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2020. "Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27281, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Brinca, Pedro & Duarte, Joao B. & Faria-e-Castro, Miguel, 2021. "Measuring labor supply and demand shocks during COVID-19," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Aum, Sangmin & Lee, Sang Yoon (Tim) & Shin, Yongseok, 2021. "Inequality of fear and self-quarantine: Is there a trade-off between GDP and public health?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    8. Dizioli, Allan & Pinheiro, Roberto, 2021. "Information and inequality in the time of a pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    9. Adams-Prassl, Abi & Boneva, Teodora & Golin, Marta & Rauh, Christopher, 2022. "Work that can be done from home: evidence on variation within and across occupations and industries," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Kangoh Lee, 2021. "Pandemics, Mitigation Measures, and Environment," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(2), pages 353-374, February.
    11. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi & Michael J. Mina & James H. Stock, 2020. "Reopening Scenarios," NBER Working Papers 27244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Jean-Victor Alipour & Harald Fadinger & Jan Schymik, 2020. "My Home Is my Castle – The Benefits of Working from Home During a Pandemic Crisis Evidence from Germany," ifo Working Paper Series 329, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    13. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2022. "Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1397-1436, May.
    14. Pichler, Anton & Pangallo, Marco & del Rio-Chanona, R. Maria & Lafond, François & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2020. "In and out of lockdown: Propagation of supply and demand shocks in a dynamic input-output model," INET Oxford Working Papers 2021-18, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, revised Feb 2021.
    15. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano, 2020. "From the lockdown to the new normal: An analysis of the limitations to individual mobility in Italy following the Covid-19 crisis," Discussion Paper series in Regional Science & Economic Geography 2020-07, Gran Sasso Science Institute, Social Sciences, revised Oct 2020.
    16. Frank Crowley & Justin Doran, 2020. "COVID‐19, occupational social distancing and remote working potential: An occupation, sector and regional perspective," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(6), pages 1211-1234, December.
    17. Kangoh Lee, 2022. "Pandemics and support for mitigation measures," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 73-89, June.
    18. Anna Petherick & Rafael Goldszmidt & Eduardo B. Andrade & Rodrigo Furst & Thomas Hale & Annalena Pott & Andrew Wood, 2021. "A worldwide assessment of changes in adherence to COVID-19 protective behaviours and hypothesized pandemic fatigue," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(9), pages 1145-1160, September.
    19. Ichino, Andrea & Favero, Carlo A. & Rustichini, Aldo, 2020. "Restarting the economy while saving lives under Covid-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 14664, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Houštecká, Anna & Koh, Dongya & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2021. "Contagion at work: Occupations, industries and human contact," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; social distancing; GDP; Economic Dynamics; Simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aep:anales:4477. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Juan Manuel Quintero (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeppea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.