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Resource Windfalls and Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: The Role of Political Institutions

Author

Listed:
  • Rabah Arezki

    (International Monetary Fund (IMF))

  • Markus Bruckner

    (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

Abstract

We examine the effect that revenue windfalls from international commodity price booms have on sovereign bond spreads using panel data for 36 emerging market economies during the period 1997-2007. Our main finding is that commodity price booms lead to a significant reduction in the sovereign bond spread in democracies, but to a significant increase in the spread in autocracies. To explain our finding we show that, consistent with the political economy literature on the resource curse, revenue windfalls from international commodity price booms significantly increased real per capita GDP growth in democracies, while in autocracies GDP per capita growth decreased.

Suggested Citation

  • Rabah Arezki & Markus Bruckner, 2011. "Resource Windfalls and Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: The Role of Political Institutions," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2011-08, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:adl:wpaper:2011-08
    as

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    File URL: https://media.adelaide.edu.au/economics/papers/doc/wp2011-08.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodity price shocks; sovereign bond spread; political institutions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D73 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation

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