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Can the new aid-growth models be replicated

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  • Jensen, Peter Sandholt
  • Paldam, Martin

    ()
    (Department of Economics Aarhus, Denmark)

Abstract

The recent literature on the aid-growth relation discusses two competing models: The Good Policy Model, where the key feature is policy times aid, and the Medicine Model, where the key feature is aid squared. Both have been reached on a sample of about 1/3 of the available data. We present a base model, to replicate both models on that data set. It is then replicated on as much of the available data as possible. Within the sample the Good Policy Model proves fragile, while the Medicine Model is more robust. Neither model replicates outside the original data sample. Further, we apply a semi-parametric regression technique to test for an unknown functional form of the aid-growth relation. It rejects that aid is statistically significant. Thus the evidence in favor of an aid-growth relationship - let alone a nonlinear one - is weak.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2003-17.

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Length: 22
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Handle: RePEc:aah:aarhec:2003-17

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Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/

Related research

Keywords: Aid effectiveness; growth; semi-parametric panel regression;

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References

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  1. Lensink, Robert & White, Howard, 1999. "Are there negative returns to aid?," Research Report 99E60, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  2. Paldam, Martin, 1997. "Dutch disease and rent seeking: The Greenland model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 591-614, September.
  3. Charles C. Chang & Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Luis Serven, 1998. "Measuring Aid Flows: A New Approach," Research Department Publications 4146, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  4. Goergens, Tue & Paldam, Martin & Würtz, Allan, . "How does Public Regulation affect Growth?," Economics Working Papers 2003-14, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  5. Henrik Hansen & Finn Tarp, 2000. "Aid effectiveness disputed," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 375-398.
  6. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
  7. William Easterly & Ross Levine & David Roodman, 2003. "New Data, New doubts: A Comment on Burnside and Dollar's "Aid, Policies, and Growth" (2000)," NBER Working Papers 9846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. C-J. Dalgaard & H. Hansen, 2001. "On Aid, Growth and Good Policies," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 17-41.
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Cited by:
  1. Philipp Harms & Matthias Lutz, 2004. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Foreign Aid: A Survey," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2004 2004-11, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  2. Ismail O. FASANYA & Adegbemi B.O ONAKOYA, 2012. "Does Foreign Aid Accelerate Economic Growth? An Empirical Analysis for Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 423-431.
  3. McGillivray, Mark & Feeny, Simon & Hermes, Niels & Lensink, Robert, 2005. "It Works; It Doesn't; It Can, But That Depends?: 50 Years of Controversy over the Macroeconomic Impact of Development Aid," Working Paper Series RP2005/54, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  4. Philipp Harms & Michael Rauber, 2004. "Foreign aid and developing countries' creditworthiness," Working Papers 04.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  5. Mark McGillivray & Simon Feeny & Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink, 2006. "Controversies over the impact of development aid: it works; it doesn't; it can, but that depends …," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(7), pages 1031-1050.
  6. Bjørnskov, Christian & Schröder, Philipp J.H., 2010. "Are Debt Repayment Incentives Undermined by Foreign Aid?," Working Papers 10-20, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Economics.
  7. Fambon, Samuel, 2013. "Foreign capital inflow and economic growth in Cameroon," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  8. Mark McGillivray, 2005. "Réformer la formule : commentaires.Efficacité de l'aide et régimes de politiques économiques dans les pays receveurs," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 19(2), pages 119-127.

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