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Deconstructing Systemic Risk: A Reverse Stress Testing Approach

In: Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance

Author

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  • Javier Ojea-Ferreiro

    (Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (JRC)
    Complutense Institute of Economic Analysis, Quantitative Economics Department 28223)

Abstract

This chapter proposes a methodology based on a reverse stress test exercise to shed light on key questions related to systemic risk like the quantification of the losses in an adverse scenario, its probability of occurrence and the role of main contributors. We combine several measures implied by the Expected Shortfall to get time series and cross section information regarding systemic risk. We explore how these results could change depending on key parameters in a Gaussian framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Ojea-Ferreiro, 2021. "Deconstructing Systemic Risk: A Reverse Stress Testing Approach," Springer Books, in: Marco Corazza & Manfred Gilli & Cira Perna & Claudio Pizzi & Marilena Sibillo (ed.), Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance, pages 369-375, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-3-030-78965-7_54
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-78965-7_54
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Javier Ojea Ferreiro, 2018. "Contagion spillovers between sovereign and financial European sector from a Delta CoVaR approach," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2018-12, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    2. Sylvain Benoît & Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2013. "A Theoretical and Empirical Comparison of Systemic Risk Measures," Working Papers halshs-00746272, HAL.
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    4. Arnoud W. A. Boot & Lev Ratnovski, 2016. "Banking and Trading," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(6), pages 2219-2246.
    5. Banulescu, Georgiana-Denisa & Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona, 2015. "Which are the SIFIs? A Component Expected Shortfall approach to systemic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 575-588.
    6. M. Burzoni & I. Peri & C. M. Ruffo, 2017. "On the properties of the Lambda value at risk: robustness, elicitability and consistency," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(11), pages 1735-1743, November.
    7. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2012. "Collective Moral Hazard, Maturity Mismatch, and Systemic Bailouts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 60-93, February.
    8. Matteo Burzoni & Ilaria Peri & Chiara Maria Ruffo, 2016. "On the properties of the Lambda value at risk: robustness, elicitability and consistency," Papers 1603.09491, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2017.
    9. Fernando Duarte & Thomas M. Eisenbach, 2021. "Fire‐Sale Spillovers and Systemic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1251-1294, June.
    10. Asmerilda Hitaj & Cesario Mateus & Ilaria Peri, 2018. "Lambda Value at Risk and Regulatory Capital: A Dynamic Approach to Tail Risk," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, March.
    11. Salleo, Carmelo & Homar, Timotej & Kick, Heinrich, 2016. "Making sense of the EU wide stress test: a comparison with the SRISK approach," Working Paper Series 1920, European Central Bank.
    12. Ming-Yuan Leon Li & Hsiou-wei William Lin, 2004. "Estimating value-at-risk via Markov switching ARCH models - an empirical study on stock index returns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(11), pages 679-691.
    13. Huaizhi Chen & Lauren Cohen & Umit Gurun, 2019. "Don’t Take Their Word For It: The Misclassification of Bond Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 26423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. repec:aei:rpaper:2070 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Viral Acharya & Robert Engle & Matthew Richardson, 2012. "Capital Shortfall: A New Approach to Ranking and Regulating Systemic Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 59-64, May.
    16. Löffler, Gunter & Raupach, Peter, 2018. "Pitfalls in the Use of Systemic Risk Measures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 269-298, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic risk; Financial sector; Expected shortfall; Conditional measures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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