IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/rba/rbaacv/acv2018-03.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Credibility, Flexibility and Renewal: The Evolution of Inflation Targeting in Canada

In: Central Bank Frameworks: Evolution or Revolution?

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas J Carter

    (Bank of Canada)

  • Rhys Mendes

    (Bank of Canada)

  • Lawrence L Schembri

    (Bank of Canada)

Abstract

In 1991, Canada became the second country to adopt an inflation target as a central pillar of its monetary policy framework. The regime has proven much more successful than initially expected, both in achieving price stability and in stabilizing the real economy against a wide range of shocks. We identify and discuss three factors that have contributed to this performance: i.the simple, readily understood and consistently applied specification of the inflation target, which, since adoption, has taken the form of a point target inside a symmetric control range; ii.the establishment of the target in an agreement between the central bank and government, in which inflation control was recognized as a joint duty of both parties, implying key supporting roles for fiscal and macroprudential policy; and iii.the agreement’s regular and thorough review-and-renewal process, which has led to continual improvement based on accumulated experience and advances in the academic literature. Together, these factors have helped anchor inflation expectations around a credible target. This anchoring has in turn made it easier for monetary policy to stay on target, setting a powerful virtuous cycle into motion. An additional benefit is that well-anchored inflation expectations leave monetary policy with greater flexibility to consider its impacts on output and employment variability, as well as financial stability. Nonetheless, certain features of the current economic landscape—including low equilibrium real interest rates and high debt burdens in key sectors—now present monetary policy in Canada and other jurisdictions with significant challenges. We discuss these issues and argue that they require inflation-targeting central banks to give careful thought to the steps that can be taken to refine and strengthen their policy frameworks, widen their toolkits and best ensure complementarity with other macrofinancial policies.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas J Carter & Rhys Mendes & Lawrence L Schembri, 2018. "Credibility, Flexibility and Renewal: The Evolution of Inflation Targeting in Canada," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: John Simon & Maxwell Sutton (ed.),Central Bank Frameworks: Evolution or Revolution?, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbaacv:acv2018-03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/confs/2018/pdf/rba-conference-volume-2018-carter-mendes-schembri.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    2. Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Panel discussion: price stability ; How should long-term monetary policy be determined?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 625-631.
    3. Ruchir Agarwal & Miles Kimball, 2015. "Breaking Through the Zero Lower Bound," IMF Working Papers 2015/224, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Paul Beaudry & Francisco Ruge‐Murcia, 2017. "Canadian inflation targeting," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 1556-1572, December.
    6. Champagne, Julien & Sekkel, Rodrigo, 2018. "Changes in monetary regimes and the identification of monetary policy shocks: Narrative evidence from Canada," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 72-87.
    7. Nessen, Marianne & Vestin, David, 2005. "Average Inflation Targeting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 837-863, October.
    8. Robert Amano & Thomas J. Carter & Yaz Terajima, 2017. "Redistributive Effects of a Change in the Inflation Target," Staff Analytical Notes 17-13, Bank of Canada.
    9. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    10. Stephen S. Poloz, 2016. "The Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture - Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Financial Stability: The Medium Term Is Still the Message," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 42(3), pages 225-236, September.
    11. Donald Coletti & Jack Selody & Carolyn A. Wilkins, 2006. "Another Look at the Inflation-Target Horizon," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2006(Summer), pages 31-37.
    12. Duguay, Pierre & Longworth, David, 1998. "Macroeconomic models and policy making at the bank of canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 357-375, July.
    13. Marc-André Gosselin & Mikael Khan, 2015. "A Survey of Consumer Expectations for Canada," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2015(Autumn), pages 14-23.
    14. C Freedman, 2001. "Inflation Targeting And The Economy: Lessons From Canada'S First Decade," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 19(1), pages 2-19, January.
    15. Summers, Lawrence, 1991. "How Should Long-Term Monetary Policy Be Determined? Panel Discussion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 625-631, August.
    16. Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2016. "Estimating Canada’s Effective Lower Bound," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2016(Spring), pages 3-14.
    17. José Dorich & Abeer Reza & Subrata Sarker, 2017. "An Update on the Neutral Rate of Interest," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2017(Autumn), pages 27-41.
    18. Michael Bordo & Ali Dib & Lawrence Schembri, 2010. "Canada's Pioneering Experience with a Flexible Exchange Rate in the 1950s: (Hard) Lessons Learned for Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(3), pages 51-99, September.
    19. Guido Lorenzoni, 2010. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Uncertain Fundamentals and Dispersed Information ," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(1), pages 305-338.
    20. Thibaut Duprey & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2018. "How to Manage Macroeconomic and Financial Stability Risks: A New Framework," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-11, Bank of Canada.
    21. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
    22. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    23. Ben Fung & Kim Huynh & Gerald Stuber, 2015. "The Use of Cash in Canada," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2015(Spring), pages 45-56.
    24. Rhys R. Mendes & Stephen Murchison, 2014. "Should Forward Guidance Be Backward-Looking?," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2014(Autumn), pages 12-22.
    25. Caramazza, Francesco & Hostland, Doug & Poloz, Stephen, 1990. "The demand for money and the monetary policy process in Canada," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 387-426.
    26. Francesco Caramazza & Doug Hostland & Stephen Poloz, 1990. "The demand for money and the monetary policy process," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 387-431.
    27. Stephen S. Poloz, 2016. "The Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture—Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Financial Stability: The Medium Term Is Still the Message," Discussion Papers 16-13, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. José Dorich & Rhys R. Mendes & Yang Zhang, 2021. "The Bank of Canada’s “Horse Race” of Alternative Monetary Policy Frameworks: Some Interim Results from Model Simulations," Discussion Papers 2021-13, Bank of Canada.
    2. Jaromir Baxa & Jan Zacek, 2022. "Monetary Policy and the Financial Cycle: International Evidence," Working Papers 2022/4, Czech National Bank.
    3. Megumu Kinugawa, 2019. "The unconventional monetary policy of the Bank of Japan during the period 2013–2018: comments and views on Shirai," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 347-358, August.
    4. Vivian Chu & Yang Zhang, 2022. "Harnessing the benefit of state-contingent forward guidance," Staff Analytical Notes 2022-13, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guido Ascari & Argia M. Sbordone, 2014. "The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 679-739, September.
    2. Vadym Lepetyuk & Lilia Maliar & Serguei Maliar, 2017. "Should Central Banks Worry About Nonlinearities of their Large-Scale Macroeconomic Models?," Staff Working Papers 17-21, Bank of Canada.
    3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2012. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(4), pages 1371-1406.
    4. Lepetyuk, Vadym & Maliar, Lilia & Maliar, Serguei, 2020. "When the U.S. catches a cold, Canada sneezes: A lower-bound tale told by deep learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    5. José Dorich & Nicholas Labelle St-Pierre & Vadym Lepetyuk & Rhys R. Mendes, 2018. "Could a higher inflation target enhance macroeconomic stability?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 1029-1055, August.
    6. Hitoshi Fuchi & Nobuyuki Oda & Hiroshi Ugai, 2007. "The Costs and Benefits of Inflation: Evaluation for Japan's Economy," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-10, Bank of Japan.
    7. Fuchi, Hitoshi & Oda, Nobuyuki & Ugai, Hiroshi, 2008. "Optimal inflation for Japan's economy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 439-475, December.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
    9. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1877-1905, October.
    10. Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2004. "On the Relationship Between Short‐ and Long‐term Interest Rates," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 261-286, July.
    11. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers and Policy Coordination," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 6, pages 175-234, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Richard Dennis, 2016. "Durations at the Zero Lower Bound," IMES Discussion Paper Series 16-E-11, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    13. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    14. Barnichon, Regis & Mesters, Geert, 2021. "The Phillips multiplier," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 689-705.
    15. Roberto M. Billi, 2011. "Optimal Inflation for the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 29-52, July.
    16. Carl E. Walsh, 2011. "The Future of Inflation Targeting," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(s1), pages 23-36, September.
    17. Siddhartha Chattopadhyay, 2021. "The Neo-Fisherianism to Escape Zero Lower Bound," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Environmental, Social, and Governance Perspectives on Economic Development in Asia, volume 29, pages 1-19, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    18. Dario Pontiggia, 2016. "A Note on Intrinsic Inflation Persistence and the Optimal Inflation Rate," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 5, pages 248-253.
    19. Gauti B. Eggertsson, 2012. "Was the New Deal Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 524-555, February.
    20. McGough, Bruce & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2005. "Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 855-879, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation targeting; monetary policy; renewal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rba:rbaacv:acv2018-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Paula Drew (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbagvau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.