IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/nbr/nberch/14181.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

How Will Persistent Low Expected Returns Shape Household Economic Behavior?

In: Incentives and Limitations of Employment Policies on Retirement Transitions

Author

Listed:
  • Vanya Horneff
  • Raimond Maurer
  • Olivia S. Mitchell

Abstract

Many believe that global capital markets will generate lower returns in the future versus the past. We examine how persistently lower real returns will reshape work, retirement, saving, and investment behavior of older persons using a calibrated dynamic life cycle model. In a low return regime, workers build up less wealth in their tax-qualified 401(k) accounts versus the past, claim social security benefits later, and work more. Moreover, the better-educated are more sensitive to real interest rate changes, while the least-educated alter their behavior less. Interestingly, the distribution of wealth is more uniform in periods of persistent low expected returns.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Vanya Horneff & Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2018. "How Will Persistent Low Expected Returns Shape Household Economic Behavior?," NBER Chapters, in: Incentives and Limitations of Employment Policies on Retirement Transitions, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14181
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Horneff, Vanya & Maurer, Raimond & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2017. "How persistent low expected returns alter optimal life cycle saving, investment, and retirement behavior," SAFE Working Paper Series 190, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    2. Francisco J. Gomes & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Luis M. Viceira, 2008. "Optimal Life-Cycle Investing with Flexible Labor Supply: A Welfare Analysis of Life-Cycle Funds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 297-303, May.
    3. Horneff, Vanya & Maurer, Raimond & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Rogalla, Ralph, 2015. "Optimal life cycle portfolio choice with variable annuities offering liquidity and investment downside protection," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 91-107.
    4. Francisco Gomes & Alexander Michaelides, 2005. "Optimal Life‐Cycle Asset Allocation: Understanding the Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 869-904, April.
    5. Jingjing Chai & Wolfram Horneff & Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2011. "Optimal Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle with Flexible Work, Endogenous Retirement, and Lifetime Payouts," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(4), pages 875-907.
    6. David A. Love, 2010. "The Effects of Marital Status and Children on Savings and Portfolio Choice," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 385-432, January.
    7. Vanya Horneff & Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2016. "Putting the Pension Back in 401(k) Plans: Optimal versus Default Longevity Income Annuities," NBER Working Papers 22717, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Andreas Hubener & Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2016. "How Family Status and Social Security Claiming Options Shape Optimal Life Cycle Portfolios," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(4), pages 937-978.
    9. Brown, Jeffrey R., 2001. "Private pensions, mortality risk, and the decision to annuitize," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 29-62, October.
    10. Francisco Gomes & Alexander Michaelides & Valery Polkovnichenko, 2009. "Optimal Savings with Taxable and Tax-Deferred Accounts," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(4), pages 718-735, October.
    11. John B. Shoven & Sita Nataraj Slavov, 2012. "The Decision to Delay Social Security Benefits: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 17866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 491-533.
    13. Shoven, John B. & Slavov, Sita Nataraj, 2014. "Does it pay to delay social security?," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 121-144, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell & Noemi Oggero, 2020. "Debt and Financial Vulnerability on the Verge of Retirement," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(5), pages 1005-1034, August.
    2. Horneff, Vanya & Maurer, Raimond & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2023. "How would 401(k) ‘Rothification’ alter saving, retirement security, and inequality?," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 265-283, July.
    3. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    4. Jean-Michel Beacco & Catherine Lubochinsky & Marie Brière & Alain Monfort & Caroline Hillairet & Sylvain Benoît, 2019. "Invited Editorial “The challenges imposed by low interest rates”," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(6), pages 413-420, October.
    5. Vanya Horneff & Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2019. "How Would 401(k) ‘Rothification’ Alter Saving, Retirement Security, and Inequality?," Working Papers wp398, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vanya Horneff & Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2019. "How Would 401(k) ‘Rothification’ Alter Saving, Retirement Security, and Inequality?," Working Papers wp398, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    2. Horneff, Vanya & Maurer, Raimond & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2017. "How persistent low expected returns alter optimal life cycle saving, investment, and retirement behavior," SAFE Working Paper Series 190, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    3. Horneff, Vanya & Maurer, Raimond & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2023. "How would 401(k) ‘Rothification’ alter saving, retirement security, and inequality?," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 265-283, July.
    4. Horneff, Vanya & Maurer, Raimond & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2023. "Do required minimum distribution 401(k) rules matter, and for whom? Insights from a lifecycle model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    5. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    6. Kaschützke, B. & Maurer, R., 2016. "Investing and Portfolio Allocation for Retirement," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 567-608, Elsevier.
    7. Horneff, Vanya & Maurer, Raimond & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2020. "Putting the pension back in 401(k) retirement plans: Optimal versus default deferred longevity income annuities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    8. Horneff, Vanya & Maurer, Raimond & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2018. "Putting the pension back in 401(k) retirement plans: Optimal versus default longevity income annuities," CFS Working Paper Series 607, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    9. Andreas Hubener & Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2016. "How Family Status and Social Security Claiming Options Shape Optimal Life Cycle Portfolios," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(4), pages 937-978.
    10. Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell & Ralph Rogalla & Tatjana Schimetschek, 2021. "Optimal social security claiming behavior under lump sum incentives: Theory and evidence," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(1), pages 5-27, March.
    11. Horneff, Vanya & Liebler, Daniel & Maurer, Raimond & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2019. "Implications of money-back guarantees for individual retirement accounts: Protection then and now," SAFE Working Paper Series 263, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    12. Hans Fehr, 2009. "Computable Stochastic Equilibrium Models and Their Use in Pension- and Ageing Research," De Economist, Springer, vol. 157(4), pages 359-416, December.
    13. Fabio C. Bagliano & Carolina Fugazza & Giovanna Nicodano, 2017. "A Life-Cycle Model with Unemployment Traps," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 514, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2019.
    14. Kim, Hugh Hoikwang & Maurer, Raimond & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2016. "Time is money: Rational life cycle inertia and the delegation of investment management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 427-447.
    15. Chai, Jingjing & Maurer, Raimond H. & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Rogalla, Ralph, 2011. "Lifecycle impacts of the financial and economic crisis on household optimal consumption, portfolio choice, and labor supply," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/23, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    16. Magnus Dahlquist & Ofer Setty & Roine Vestman, 2018. "On the Asset Allocation of a Default Pension Fund," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 1893-1936, August.
    17. Blake, David & Wright, Douglas & Zhang, Yumeng, 2014. "Age-dependent investing: Optimal funding and investment strategies in defined contribution pension plans when members are rational life cycle financial planners," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 105-124.
    18. Fischer, Marcel & Kraft, Holger & Munk, Claus, 2013. "Asset allocation over the life cycle: How much do taxes matter?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2217-2240.
    19. Le Blanc, Julia & Scholl, Almuth, 2017. "Optimal Savings For Retirement: The Role Of Individual Accounts," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(6), pages 1361-1388, September.
    20. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Fugazza, Carolina & Nicodano, Giovanna, 2021. "Life-cycle welfare losses from rules-of-thumb asset allocation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14181. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.