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Corn Production Shocks in 2012 and Beyond: Implications for Food Price Volatility

In: The Economics of Food Price Volatility

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  • Steven T. Berry
  • Michael J. Roberts
  • Wolfram Schlenker

Abstract

Corn prices increased sharply in the summer of 2012 due to expected production shortfalls in the United States, which produces roughly 40% of the world’s corn. A heat wave in July adversely affected corn production. We extend earlier statistical models of county-level corn yields in the Eastern United States by allowing the effect of various weather measures to vary in a flexible manner over the growing season: Extreme heat is especially harmful around a third into the growing season. This is the time when the 2012 heat wave hit the Corn Belt. Our model predicts 2012 corn yields will be 23% below trend. While extreme heat was significantly above normal, climate change scenarios suggest that the 2012 outcomes will soon be the new normal.

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This chapter was published in:
This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 12806.

Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:12806

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  1. Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2010. "Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate," NBER Working Papers 15921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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